Sudan Strategic Assessment

NSI led a team of social science modelers to develop and apply a range of quantitative and computational instability models to the Horn of Africa. The objective was to (1) identify root causes that give rise to human suffering, (2) understand the effects that unstable nation states in the Horn of Africa can have on the region, and (3) identify the conditions that cause nation states to become safe havens for terrorism and other sorts of nefarious activity. The models codified theories from political science, economics, sociology, psychology, and anthropology and were based on quantitative and computational methods from system dynamics, statistics, dynamical system of equations, and multi-agent systems. NSI is also supporting a client to manage and execute the development of an early warning system to monitor, assess, and forecast national, sub-national, and international crises. The system will allow decision-makers to anticipate and mitigate threats to stability and conflict, to allocate resources to shape the environment in beneficial ways, and to assess the effectiveness of stability objectives.