Defense Strategy and a Strategy of Denial?
Speaker(s): Colby, E. (The Marathon Initiative)
Date: 3 March 2022
Speaker Session Summary
SMA hosted a speaker session with Mr. Elbridge Colby (The Marathon Initiative) as part of its SMA NDU (INSS/PRISM) Speaker Series.
US grand strategy for contesting China’s potential aggression in the Asian Pacific, but also more broadly, must be redefined. Following the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, US defense policy has lacked focus. Mr. Colby argues that US defense policy should have three main areas of focus: defending Taiwan against a Chinese invasion, increase its nuclear deterrence capabilities, and low-expense counter-terrorism efforts. He mentioned that aiding NATO in its defense against Russian aggression is also important; however, NATO countries have shown a will and ability to increase their own defense budgets and military capabilities. A new US defense strategy should focus on planning for and stopping an adversarial actor pursuing its best strategy available, even if it is a low-yield nuclear conflict.
For the US, China poses the strongest, state-level military threat. Currently, China cannot impose its will on the US; however, if it could establish hegemony over the Asia Pacific region then it will be able to challenge US global interests. A growing China power in the Asia Pacific will likely seek to weaken and defeat anti-hegemonic actors in the region, like Taiwan. This could potentially include a Chinese military invasion. While a US-China military conflict is not likely, Mr. Colby argues that the United States’ lack of preparation for a Sino-US military conflict makes it a more probable outcome. Because of this, he argues that the US defense strategy should prepare for a military conflict with China over Taiwan. He concluded his presentation by stating that regardless of the adversary, the US should plan for it to pursue its best overall option, even if it is not likely.
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