Nord Stream 2: Implications and Outcomes for US-German Relations and the NATO Alliance

February 2021 No Comments

Speakers: Dorondo, D. (Western Carolina University); other panelists TBA

Date: 3 March 2021

Speaker Session Summary

SMA hosted a speaker session, presented by Dr. David Dorondo (Western Carolina University), Dr. Arnold Dupuy (NATO Science and Technology Organization’s Systems Analysis and Studies (SAS)-163 and Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC)), Dr. Ion Iftimie (Central European University, Vienna, Austria), Dr. Daniel Nussbaum (NATO Science and Technology Organization’s Systems Analysis and Studies (SAS)-163 and Naval Postgraduate School), and Mr. Paul Michael Wihbey (Georgetown University and Institute on the Geopolitics of Energy), as a part of its SMA STRATCOM Academic Alliance Speaker Series.

To kick off the panel, Dr. Dorondo emphasized that the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, which is under construction and will run from Russia to Germany, will have deep impacts on Eastern Europe’s geopolitics. He stated that some regional experts believe that Germany’s political elections, scheduled to occur in 2021, may have an impact on the completion of the pipeline’s completion. However, Dr. Dorondo believes that Germany’s election cycle will not have a strong impact on the completion of the pipeline. He added that it is unlikely that the pipeline will be left unfinished, even if political parties who opposed to the pipeline gain additional seats. This is mostly because the political parties in Germany who oppose the pipeline oppose it for ecological reasons, and since Germany has suffered economically as of late, partially due to the COVID-19 pandemic, these economic reasons would likely outweigh the ecological ones.

Next, Dr. Iftimie expressed his fear that, if Russia becomes less reliant on Ukraine as an avenue for piping gas to Europe, Russia will escalate conflict in Ukraine by increasing support for pro-Russian separatists. NATO as a whole is especially interested in decreasing the potential for conflict in the Ukraine because Ukraine is considered one of NATO’s fronts against Russian aggression. Perceptions of the issues surrounding the pipeline are not universal among NATO member countries, however. The countries closer to the Russian border view the Nord Stream 2 pipeline as a geopolitical and economic issue, while countries further from Russia view it as primarily just an economic issue, Dr. Iftimie explained.

Mr. Wihbey argued that Germany will become more receptive to the Nord Stream 2 pipeline because harsh winter conditions exposed weaknesses of solar, wind, and other forms of renewable energy—all of which Germany is trying to transition to over fossil fuels. He added that Germany will likely increase its reliance on Russian natural gas, not only because he thinks it will be reluctant to invest more in renewable energy, but because the gas it is receiving from Russia is inexpensive. Currently, over half of Germany’s natural gas is from Russia. Countries that could lessen Germany’s reliance on Russia—including Qatar—choose to send their gas to Eastern Asian countries because they can make a larger profit doing so. Therefore, all points to an eventual increase in German reliance on Russian natural gas, Mr. Wihbey explained.

Dr. Nussbaum deviated from the group’s discussion to highlight the the Naval Postgraduate School’s role in educating operators for the US Navy at the masters and PhD level. He stated that the Naval Postgraduate School educates, conducts research, and encourages outreach through research programs that focus on optimization and efficiency, critical energy infrastructure protection and resilience, renewables and emerging technologies, and awareness and behavioral changes. Dr. Nussbaum then returned to discussing the Nord Stream 2 pipeline by stating that, as discussed previously, the pipeline is a geopolitical issue that has changed as China became the world’s largest consumer of natural gas. He also argued that Russia is always looking for strategic depth and will look to use Europe’s dependence on Russian fuel to its advantage. Knowing where the strengths and weaknesses are within the pipeline is strategically crucial for both Russia and its European adversaries, he added. Dr. Nussbaum ended his presentation by recommending several books, including The Prize and The Quest by Daniel Yergin and Accidental Super Power and Absent Super Power by Peter Zeihan.

According to Dr. Dupuy, NATO has been concerned with the flow of critical energy since the Cold War ended. He stated that NATO’s past involvement in the Middle East was partly due to the role the region plays in providing most of NATO’s energy. To deal with its energy needs, NATO has developed two energy organizations: the Hybrid Threats and Energy Security Section and the Energy Security Center of Excellence. Dr. Dupuy also commented that the US perception of any Russian infrastructure in Europe as a direct threat is held by some of the US’s allies in NATO. However, NATO is currently more focused on oil than natural gas because oil has more military applications. Dr. Dupuy concluded the group’s presentation by stating that if NATO does not focus more on controlling natural gas, then it may wind up funding one of its largest threats in Russia.

Speaker Session Recording

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