IRGC’s Role in the Black Economy
Author | Editor: Canna, S. (NSI, Inc.) Questions of Focus [Q1] What is the extent of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) involvement in black (criminal) economic activity in Iran and internationally? How significant is the drug abuse problem in Iran currently? What is the population’s knowledge of IRGC involvement in trafficking drugs, including through Iran? How much […]
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A New US-Iran Nuclear Agreement: What are the Chances?
Author | Editor: Popp, G. (NSI, Inc.) Question of Focus [Q1] In the next five years, how likely is it that Iran will be willing to negotiate a new nuclear treaty with the United States? Bottom Line Up Front Microsoft Word – NSI ViTTa_A New US-Iran Nuclear Agreement_CENTCOM Q1_final for posting.docx Most of the expert contributors agree […]
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The Abraham Accords and Iran’s Unconventional Warfare Activities
Author | Editor: Astorino-Courtois, A. (NSI, Inc.) Question of Focus [Q4] How have the Abraham Accords shaped Iranian activity abroad in terms of unconventional warfare (UW)? Report Preview The Abraham Accords normalizing diplomatic and economic relations between Israel and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Israel and Bahrain, as well as a less robust agreement with Sudan, […]
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Iran’s Ballistic Missile Launch Criteria: Change or Continuity?
Author | Editor: Bragg, B. (NSI, Inc.) Question of Focus [Q2] Based on recent events (Accords, Soleimani, COVID), how has ballistic missile launch criteria changed? Other impacts on military readiness and response? Report Preview The experts interviewed for this study do not see Iran’s recent operational use of its ballistic missiles as signaling a fundamental change in […]
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Internal Instability in Iran: Drivers and Regime Response
Author | Editor: Bragg, B. (NSI, Inc.) Question of Focus [Q1] What are the primary drivers of internal instability for Iran currently, and how are they responding? Report Preview There was consensus among the subject matter experts (SMEs) who responded to this question that the primary driver of internal instability in Iran is the dismal state of […]
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IRGC-QF Malfeasant Activity Outside of the CENTCOM AOR
Author | Editor: Canna, S. (NSI, Inc.) Question of Focus [Q3] Given recent events, what are the trends in Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-Quds Force (IRGC-QF) malfeasant activity outside of the CENTCOM AOR? Report Preview Experts interviewed state that they could find no evidence of recent changes in IRGC-QF activity outside of the CENTCOM area of responsibility (AOR). […]
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Disinformation and Political Warfare: Historical and Technological Insights (A Conversation with Thomas Rid)
Speaker: Rid, T. (Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies) Date: 11 February 2021 Speaker Session Summary SMA hosted a speaker session, presented by Dr. Thomas Rid (Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies) as a part of its SMA IIJO Speaker Series. Dr. Rid began by stating that that there is currently a lack […]
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Analyzing Election Disinformation Efforts by Foreign Actors
Speaker: Helmus, T. (RAND); Marcellino, W. (RAND); Posard, M. (RAND) Date: 9 February 2021 Speaker Session Summary SMA hosted a speaker session, presented by Dr. Todd Helmus (RAND), Dr. William Marcellino (RAND), and Dr. Marek Posard (RAND) as a part of its SMA EUCOM Speaker Series. Dr. Posard began the speaker session by stating that he […]
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How [Culture] Change Happens: A Roadmap of What Works
Authors | Editors: Courtney, A. (Frontier Design); Williams, J. (Frontier Design) SMA Report Preview This report was submitted by Frontier Design in support of SMA’s Integrating Information in Joint Operations (IIJO) effort. Abstract Change is hard; it humbles us all. Yet, it is possible to succeed. This article explores the why, what, who and how […]
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“Standing Under” Stories: Narrative Research Methods for Anticipatory Intelligence
Speaker: Cobb, S. (George Mason University) Date: 2 February 2021 Speaker Session Summary SMA hosted a speaker session, presented by Dr. Sara Cobb (George Mason University) as a part of its SMA IIJO Speaker Series. Dr. Cobb began her presentation by acknowledging that her own work builds on and heavily references prior communication, conflict, and psychological research, […]
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