SMA CENTCOM Panel Discussion—Black Swans and Gray Rhinos in the CENTCOM AOR: Vigilance Against the Unsuspected and Keeping Our Eyes on the Prize

Authors | Editors: Kuznar, L. (NSI, Inc.); Peterson, N. (NSI, Inc.)

Executive Summary

Four panelists with deep knowledge and experience in the USCENTCOM AOR and with complex systems modeling were asked to reflect on how to think about and anticipate surprises in the USCENTCOM area of responsibility (AOR), especially Black Swan surprises that are the product of non-linear relationships between interacting variables. The panelists shared a wealth of knowledge on the region and complexity. Key takeaways included:

• The aim of complex modeling is to provide strategic success—the US needs to be able to anticipate surprises and their likelihoods to plan against them instead of reacting to events as they unfold.
• Black Swan surprises emerge as a result of non-linear relationships between system variables, but also high dimensionality and the interdependence of key variables.
• Examples of the variables that interact in complex ways in the USCENTCOM AOR include unstable governments and economies, ineffective conflict management, uncoordinated development, ethnic and religious diversity, and climate change.
• Actual modeling must be done, and not simply using metaphors of complexity. The warfighter users of complex modeling need the skills to build models and understand them and, at a minimum, they must understand assumptions and actionable results.
• Data are a problem. Data exist at the country level, but the complex dynamics that really need to be understood operationally are sub-national if not local. Efforts must be undertaken to fill this gap, which also includes data on past known Black Swans in the AOR.

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