Escalation Management in International Conflict: The United States and its Adversaries

Speakers: Ms. Egle Murauskaite (ICONS Project, University of Maryland), Mr. Devin H. Ellis (Applied Research Laboratory for Intelligence and Security (ARLIS), University of Maryland)

Date: 25 April 2023

Speaker Session Summary

SMA hosted a speaker session with Ms. Egle Murauskaite (ICONS Project, University of Maryland) and Mr. Devin H. Ellis (Applied Research Laboratory for Intelligence and Security (ARLIS), University of Maryland) as part of its SMA STRATCOM Speaker Series.

Great power competition between democratic and autocratic states has been increasing in prevalence and intensity during recent years. As competition between nations with highly capable militaries—like the US and China—increases, academic researchers and decision makers are focusing on how crisis escalation can be avoided. Ms. Murauskaite and Mr. Ellis address this research question in their recent book, “Escalation Management in International Crises: The United States and its Adversaries.” Mr. Ellis commented that much more than traditional research went into the writing of this book. The team also performed modeling efforts, conducted tabletop games, and collaborated with other researchers to create a table of escalation. This table provides a wide array of activities that either lead to escalation or de-escalation of crisis among states. The identified activities are numerous, including many tools and activities in the gray zone.

Surprisingly, the team found that there is a mutual normative aversion to the use of force among both autocratic and democratic nations. This is because force—even in the gray zone—is a strong trigger of international crisis. Gray zone tactics are frequently used in crises pitting near-peer competitors against each other. If there is an act of violence, it usually comes from the weaker actor. Ms. Murauskaite stated that the use of a proxy does not decrease the likelihood of violence being used. Instead, it leads to a higher likelihood of defender violence and increases the probability of future escalation. Challenges for the US in its great power competition, such as messaging its target audiences are persistent. These messaging issues are clear when looking at data from polls. Some of these polls show that between 30-40% of respondents in NATO allied countries do not have a clear preference between backing the US, China, or the EU in a great power competition. To avert dangerous crisis escalation with China in the South China Sea (SCS), it will be important for the US to take highly visible actions and bolster the Philippines military presence in the SCS.

Speaker Session Recording

Briefing Materials

Egle E. Murauskaite is a senior researcher and simulation designer for the ICONS Project at the University of Maryland. Based in Lithuania, she is responsible for high-level political-military crises simulations in Europe, alongside academic research and government consulting projects.

Devin H. Ellis is a senior researcher at the Applied Research Laboratory for Intelligence and Security, at the University of Maryland. He previously served as Director of the University’s ICONS Project. He has worked for many years in the application of simulation and wargaming to organizational analysis and planning.