Systemic Strategic Thinking, Policy Analysis, and Planning

March 2022 No Comments

Speaker(s): Porter, W. (Naval Postgraduate School)

Date: 15 March 2022

Speaker Session Summary

SMA hosted a speaker session with Dr. Wayne Porter, CAPT, USN (Ret)(Senior Lecturer, Naval Postgraduate School) as part of its SMA Anticipating the Future Operational Environment (AFOE) Speaker Series.

The world is comprised of a complex network of systems which take long-term, nonlinear, and non-conventional strategic thinking to understand. This type of strategic thinking is often recognized as necessary; however, it is rarely used by decision makers. Furthermore, the information used to make strategic decisions is often incomplete or misinterpreted at some level because of human error. Dr. Porter commented that when people are confronted with a complex situation, they frequently rely on simplistic heuristic evidence for its causality. This over-simplification of scenarios or events also leads to miscalculations relating to their understanding. Understanding scenarios clearly is possible through complex modeling systems and systems dynamics, which allows the analyst to create a predictive model, realign the structure of current systems, and create new goals and leaders’ decision-making calculus.

Dr. Porter then showed how his doctoral students at the Naval Postgraduate School have created complete and forward-thinking models of scenarios such as great power competition developing into a world war, countering a Covid-19 outbreak on military vessels through carrier onboard delivery capabilities, and what the future of medical fields will be in non-conventional and guerilla warfare. Social network analysis has even helped map Chinese illegal maritime activity around reefs in the South China Sea. Researchers should use social network analysis to construct an overarching system that could re-engineer the strategic and operational thinking of US leadership. Making this comprehensive system is particularly important during the current shift of defense focus to great power competition.