The Singapore Summit and Understanding North Korea’s Calculus

June 2018 No Comments

The Singapore Summit and Understanding North Korea’s Calculus

Speaker: Gause, K. (Center for Naval Analyses [CNA] – International Affairs Group)

Date: 14 June 2018

Speaker Session Preview

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Mr. Ken Gause (CNA International Affairs Group) as a part of its SMA INDOPACOM Speaker Series. Mr. Gause first stated that we need a framework to assess North Korea’s calculus, determine why Kim Jong-un came to the summit, and evaluate how he plans to proceed. He explained that the Korea-watching community is stuck in a narrative about North Korea, making several assumptions, which are not necessarily true. He then discussed the framework that he and his CNA colleagues developed, which incorporates leadership, cultural, decision-making, pressure point, and impact analyses. Mr. Gause also stated that we should assume that Kim Jong-un is a rational actor and emphasized that two goals drive all of his decision-making: regime survival and the perpetuation of Kim family rule. He then presented rational explanations for why Kim Jong-un’s decisions, given these critical “centers of gravity.” Mr. Gause concluded the session by suggesting that the Korea-watching community’s assumptions should be reexamined in light of the recent Singapore summit.

Speaker Session Audio File

Download Mr. Gause’s biography

 

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