Winning Before the Fight: An Armed Suasion Approach to Countering Near Peer Competition

December 2018 No Comments

“Winning Before the Fight: An Armed Suasion Approach to Countering Near Peer Competition”

Speaker: Byorick, C. (Joint Staff J25, Intelligence Operations, Plans & Policy)

Date: 19 December 2018

Speaker Session Preview

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Ms. Caroline Byorick (Joint Staff J25, Intelligence Operations, Plans & Policy) as a part of its Future of Great Power Competition & Conflict Speaker Series. Ms. Byorick first defined armed suasion, deterrence, compellence, and inducement. She then explained that the US often has one of three motives in mind: 1. To build, maintain, or regain credibility; 2. To shape near peer competitor decision making and behaviors; or 3. To manage risk of unintended escalation to crisis and conflict. Ms. Byorick stated that deterrence, compellence, and inducement “operate according to different structures and considerations but are often confused, leading to suboptimal outcomes.” She proceeded to discuss deterrence, compellence, a deterrence-compellence hybrid, and inducement in detail, while defining terms relevant to each type of challenge, identifying the “challenger” and the “target,” specifying what the objective of each tactic is, and providing an example scenario. She emphasized the importance of understanding the differences between deterrence and compellence and discussed a few things to consider when thinking about armed suasion (credibility, timing, and communication). She then highlighted two of the twelve principles of joint operations (clarity and awareness). Ms. Byorick concluded her presentation by identifying the challenges of armed suasion and presenting her main conclusions.

This speaker session was not recorded as per the speaker’s request.

Download Ms. Byorick’s biography and slides

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