Narratives Before & After the 2018 North Korea- United States Summit: An Analysis of Chinese and Russian News Media Coverage of Events on the Korean Peninsula

September 2018 No Comments

Narratives Before & After the 2018 North Korea- United States Summit: An Analysis of Chinese and Russian News Media Coverage of Events on the Korean Peninsula

Author(s): Dr. Skye Cooley (Oklahoma State University), Dr. Robert Hinck (Monmouth College), Dr. Randy Kluver (Oklahoma State University), and Dr. Ethan Stokes (University of Alabama)

Selected Findings

• U.S. lost its narrative initiative following the Trump-Kim summit, making future achievement of US goals on the Korean Peninsula less likely.

• Post-summit, Russian and Chinese narratives describe the dispute as largely resolved, making substantive DPRK CVID less likely.

• The Trump-Kim summit legitimized and normalized the Kim Jung Un regime.

• U.S. concessions made during Trump-Kim summit narratively constrain future U.S. policy and credibility.

• Future CVID demands by the U.S. will be difficult to resonate within the framework of the narratives established in the news media of these nations following the Trump-Kim summit.

Executive Summary

The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) does not currently constitute a strategic threat via inter-continental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) to German-Speaking and East Central Europe (GS-ECE), to the States of the European Union (EU), or to non-EU European States. Proven and potential cyber threats do exist, however, as does the proven threat of traditional espionage.

Certain States of GS-ECE/EU have direct security concerns regarding how U.S.-DPRK relations might develop. These concerns arise in the context of three international frameworks:Our analysis of Chinese and Russian news presentations on the complete and verifiable denuclearization of the DPRK indicates that neither the Chinese nor Russians have any real expectation that the DPRK will agree to future denuclearization terms, or procedures, in the shortterm. A pivotal moment used to express these sentiments across media narratives is that of the Trump-Kim summit. Prior to the summit we predicted Chinese and Russian cooperation on DPRK denuclearization would occur if disputants followed their jointly proposed dialogue-based, dual track peace process. Post-summit, quantitative and qualitative narrative assessment of Chinese and Russian media cast the DPRK’s cooperative advances and subsequent U.S. concessions as marking
the successful result of their dual-track process; this narrative suggests that major progress on DPRK’s denuclearization has already been achieved and thus resolving the major concerns by all parties, inhibiting future U.S. demands. Figures 1 and 2 show post summit descriptions of CVID possibilities and win-win scenarios with key stakeholders significantly dropping following the Trump-Kim summit; with discussions post summit detailing current political and economic partnerships in progress between the DPRK and its regional neighbors. Narrative portrayals of the “successful” resolution of the dispute legitimized the Chinese and Russian dual-track process as shown by the post-summit spike in descriptions of Chinese and Russian international influence. Media in both nations present the security and stability of the Korean Peninsula, and region, as important, but only as a product of ending provocative DPRK and U.S. actions, not complete denuclearization.

With that referenced perspective in mind, the narratives from both Chinese and Russian news media use the cooperative outcomes of the Trump-Kim summit as evidence that their recommended approach toward peace is effective and, in the process, legitimized the rule of Kim Jong-un as within that of a normative state. Media in both nations present the notion that long-term stability and peace in the region, and the international order, requires a new type of global leadership that is more collective and dialogic in nature. The U.S. is shown as declining in its international influence; cast as a self-interested actor in the region willing to take escalatory risks to maintain its dominance. Kim Jong-un is presented by media of both nations in ways that demonstrate his negotiation ability, rationality, and attempts to advance the DPRK toward normative relations with the international community. Such presentations make it easy for media in these nations to vilify future actions taken by the U.S. attempting to create timelines for denuclearization with substantive deadlines. Finally, media in both nations mention investment potentials and economic cooperation with the DPRK, and newly formed regional agreements in cooperation with the DPRK.

Overall, our assessment is that the results of the Trump-Kim summit allowed Chinese and Russian news media to make strong narrative cases to their audiences supporting the strength of their own positions and influence in the Korean Peninsula, region, and international system, and place doubt upon U.S. intentions and methods. Prior to the summit the range of possible U.S. actions toward the DPRK in both media systems was more broadly considered; following the summit both Chinese and Russian media were quick to constrain possible U.S. actions by clearly broadcasting U.S. concessions within narrative discussions of long-term disarmament and a normalizing of relations with the Kim Jong-Un regime, thus allowing any future demands or actions of the U.S. concerning fixed deadlines, or accelerated timelines, toward CVID by the DPRK to be cast by these media systems as U.S. aggression or disingenuousness toward the peace process.

Primary Take-Aways:

• Insights: Demonstrates willingness of both China and Russia to present themselves as leading international powers with a new global vision for power distribution. Shows both nations as willing to work together toward regional stability and security, as well as having shared economic interests. Russian media is much more expressive in its intentional stated alignment with that of China. Both present regional stability and non-proliferation of nuclear weapons as a concern, with the primary goal of halting DPRK’s missile testing and public nuclear testing. Chinese and Russian media both suggest that if the U.S. wishes to exert influence in the region it must do so fairly and in coordination and concert with all of the actors involved. The DPRK’s public halting of its nuclear development in conjunction with US concessions made during the Trump-Kim summit resulted in the US losing its narrative initiative and legitimized the DPRK making future achievement of US goals less likely.

• Implications: Future CVID demands by the U.S. will be difficult to resonate within the framework of the narratives established in the news media of these nations following the Trump-Kim summit. More importantly, the conveying that U.S. influence and trustworthiness are in decline creates possibilities of justifying and legitimizing new alliances and a recasting of image for existing political actors to their populations. US actions following the summit reduces US influence and bolsters Chinese prestige.

• Findings at a Glance: Kim Jong-un legitimized, CVID long-term process, stability of Korean Peninsula important to both nations, Russia & China cooperative with one another, shifting of regional influence/U.S. decline. Future U.S. actions easily repackaged into narratives of aggression and dishonesty following summit.

Secondary Take-Aways:

• Specific Chinese Media Insights: Highlights Chinese regional influence by providing tangible evidence, through the summit, that its approach to dialogue and cooperation leads to a reduction in tensions. This is shown in sharp contrast to U.S. concerns of wanting significant and tangible denuclearization of North Korea. The U.S. commitments made at the Trump-Kim summit are presented in such a way that any resumption of economic or military pressure tactics by the U.S. would appear as contradictory to its previous actions and commitments made during the summit from the Chinese perspective. Chinese media clearly presents China as commanding strong, and reasoned, regional influence, with the DPRK now acting in good faith.

• Specific Russian Media Insights: Highlights the relationship and alignment between the Russian Federation and the PRC, noting Russia as in support of a multi-lateral international system and in agreement with positions taken by the PRC toward the DRPK. Presenting of Russian strategic alignment with the PRC, noting a decline in U.S. influence, and attempting to place future U.S. actions in the region within similar narrative constraints as Chinese media. Actual concern for political or economic relations with the DPRK is of seemingly less concern than presenting those aforementioned narrative elements.

This publication was released as part of SMA’s Strategic Outcomes in the Korean Peninsula project. For more information regarding this project, please click here.