Impact of NRC Strategic Deterrence Study

The most recent news on the impact of the National Academy of Sciences’ Deterrence study co-chaired by Dr. Allison Astorino-Courtois. The excerpt below is from the House Armed Services Committee (HASC) Report on this year’s National Defense Authorization Act for fiscal year 2016. The HASC has used the National Academy of Sciences’ Deterrence study report to task the Secretary of the Air Force in the Defense Budget.

Strategic Deterrence Research and Education

In the committee report (H. Rept. 113–102) accompanying the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2014, the committee noted that “challenges remain in educating airmen on their role in safeguarding national security. Educating the warfighters who execute the daily mission of nuclear deterrence remains a critical element to ensuring the level of excellence required for the mission. In the committee report (H. Rept. 113–446) accompanying the Howard P. “Buck” McKeon National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2015, the committee noted that “the [Secretary of Defense] should take appropriate steps to refocus the military member education to ensure it is adequately covering, across-the-board, the essentials of nuclear deterrence policy and operations (including such concepts as strategic stability and escalation control)”.

In addition, the 2014 study by the National Research Council (NRC) titled, “US Air Force Strategic Deterrence Analytic Capabilities,” identified a continued deficiency in the science and research of nuclear deterrence and assurance. The Council found that, “The Air Force, working with its Service partners and the Department of Defense more generally, should pursue research on deterrence and assurance with a coherent approach that involves content analysis, leadership profiling, abstract modeling, and gaming and simulations as a suite of methods. It should organize its investments in analytic and other activities accordingly.” The committee also notes that today’s geopolitical environment presents various threats and opportunities related to nuclear deterrence. With several internal reviews and outside assessments suggesting an increased focus on strategic deterrence education and research programs, and the committee’s multi-year emphasis on this subject, the committee seeks more clarity on the concrete actions taken by the Secretary of the Air Force, as well as future plans, for strengthening nuclear deterrence education and research within the Air Force. Therefore, the committee directs the Secretary of the Air Force to submit a report to the congressional defense committees by March 1, 2016, on the steps taken by various elements of the Air Force to improve service member education on nuclear deterrence and establish a sustainable, coherent, and robust strategic deterrence research program. Such education and research program should include examining the linkages among strategic deterrence and assurance, strategic stability, escalation control, missile defense, strategic conventional capabilities, nuclear terrorism, and nonproliferation efforts. This report should provide an overview of recent actions, as well a multi-year plan, to develop and sustain a research program that addresses the deficiencies identified by the National Research Council and other groups. The committee encourages the Secretary to leverage academia, industry, the other services, and other Government partners to meet the needs of this program.