Terrorism in the Philippines and Its Influence on Great Powers

“Terrorism in the Philippines and Its Influence on Great Powers“

Authors | Editors: Logan, M. K. (University of Nebraska Omaha), Zimmerman, L. (University of Nebraska Omaha), Parker B. (University of Nebraska Omaha), & Ligon, G. S. (University of Nebraska Omaha)

Executive Summary

The UNO research team examined four active Violent Non-State Actors (VNSAs) and their capacity to disrupt Chinese influence in the Philippines. The four VNSAs include the Abu Sayyaf Group, the Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters, the Moro National Liberation Front, and the New People’s Army. Drawing from both the Leadership for the Extreme and Dangerous for Innovative Results project and the Global Terrorism Database, they focused on each VNSA’s organizational and leadership capabilities as well as their tactical patterns between 2012 and 2017. Their findings suggest that, of the four VNSAs, the New People’s Army has both the motivation and resources to spoil Chinese influence in the Philippines.

LEADIR Dataset

In this study, they utilized the LEADIR project to assess differences in organizational sophistication and leadership decision-making between four VNSAs. Broadly speaking, the LEADIR project houses data on 280 active VNSAs and 299 of their corresponding leaders. For this effort, they examined degrees of organizational sophistication, which consists of three interlinked concepts: centralization, formalization, and specialization (Logan & Ligon, 2019). Centralization refers to the degree to which decision-making is concentrated. Formalization refers to the extent to which rules and procedures are used to govern the behaviors of members of the organization. Specialization refers to the degree to which the organization is composed of many interrelated parts. In general, VNSAs with high degrees of organizational sophistication are better equipped to engage in complex tactics and operations and coordinate with other VNSAs. At the leader-level, we assess the degree to which each leader has strategic compared to operational influence. Strategic influence refers to the degree to which a leader has influence over the goals or mission of the organization, whereas operational influence refers to the degree to which a leader has influence over the operational, day-to-day aspects of the organization (e.g., fundraising, weapons procurement). They argue that leaders with strategic influence have a unique capacity to motivate followers to sacrifice personally for the strategic goals of the organization.

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