SMA’s Chinese Strategic Intentions White Paper Panel Discussion- Part II (Assessing the Durability of the Chinese Regime)
“SMA’s Chinese Strategic Intentions White Paper Panel Discussion- Part II (Assessing the Durability of the Chinese Regime)“
Speakers: Beckley, M. (Tufts University); Wright, N. (Intelligent Biology)
Date: 13 February 2019
Speaker Session Preview
SMA hosted a panel discussion as a part of its Future of Global Competition & Conflict Speaker Series. The panelists included Dr. Michael Beckley (Tufts University) and Dr. Nicholas Wright (Intelligent Biology). The moderator was Ms. Nicole (Peterson) Omundson (NSI, Inc.).
Dr. Beckley began by discussing China’s slowing economic growth and how it is driving China to become more repressive at home and more aggressive abroad. He stated that China’s “economic miracle” is fading away rapidly. For example, though some economists state that China’s GDP is growing by around 6% annually, Dr. Beckley argued that it is realistically growing by about 3%. Furthermore, even if China was achieving 6% annual growth, GDP growth isn’t necessarily a direct indicator of economic growth. Productivity also factors into economic success, and over the past decade, China’s change in productivity has been negative. Dr. Beckley stated that China has been burning capital in order to achieve its rapid economic growth and starting infrastructure projects that are ultimately unprofitable, which is unsustainable. Next, Dr. Beckley explained that when fast-growing great powers slow down, they tend to crack down on domestic dissent while expanding and becoming more mercantilist abroad. China is indeed tightening its control at home, and it is expanding its economic and military footprint abroad as well. Though this trend makes China appear confident, Dr. Beckley argued that China is becoming more insecure at home, which will eventually lead to the use of more advanced forms of repression. The growth deceleration that usually proceeds is dangerous also, as these countries will search for ways to keep internal opposition at bay. Dr. Beckley cautioned US strategists to watch out for this. Next. Dr. Wright discussed China’s construction of a digital authoritarian regime and questioned its durability. He stated that authoritarian societies in the past have not been able to successfully become rich (and industrialized) and remain authoritarian societies. China, consequently, needs to find a way to distinguish itself from these authoritarian regimes of the past. Dr. Wright then explained what a digital authoritarian regime is. A digital authoritarian regime is a regime that uses AI surveillance tools and sensors in order to monitor and control its population. Self-automated surveillance tools makes authoritarianism cheaper, allowing nations like China to retain its wealth. To conclude, Dr. Wright argued that the Chinese digital authoritarian regime must remain flexible and adaptable in order to survive. It must overcome slowing economic growth and social challenges, namely an urbanizing population and an aging population.
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