US-China Competition in the 2020s: The Decisive Decade

July 2020 No Comments

Speaker: Ward, J. (Atlas Organization)

Date: 8 July 2020

Speaker Session Summary

SMA hosted speaker session presented by Dr. Jonathan Ward (Atlas Organization) as a part of its SMA INDOPACOM Speaker Series. Dr. Ward addressed three primary questions during his brief: 1) Why is 2020-2030 a critical decade for US-China great power competition?; 2) What does China’s grand strategy look like?; and 3) What should the US’s response to this grand strategy look like? Dr. Ward emphasized that 2020-2030 is a critical time for long-term competition with China because it is when many people predict China’s economy to surpass the US’s, particularly due to the effects of COVID-19 on the US economy and China’s use of the pandemic to make both geopolitical moves and economic gains. In order to achieve its goal of surpassing the US, Dr. Ward stated that China plans to use its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), military modernization efforts, civil-military fusion strategy, and Made in China 2025 strategic plan to attain economic dominance, technological dominance, and military edge (first regionally, then globally). Moreover, Xi Jinping, in his military discourse, stresses the need for China to build a strong people’s military that is capable of fighting and winning wars, as China is now closer to the “great rejuvenation” than ever before. Despite this coordinated effort to surpass the US, Dr. Ward emphasized that the US can still prevent China from achieving its goal by developing a new American grand strategy during this decisive decade. Dr. Ward stressed that this new American grand strategy must be comprehensive and stretch across all instruments of power. Moreover, he stated that 1) in order for the US to must remain the world’s leading economic power, it must win the global competition with China’s state-backed companies and banks; 2) the US must work with other democracies across the globe to strengthen the rules-based global order; and 3) the US must maintain its military and technological edge over China. All of these goals can be achieved by taking away China’s economic advantages, as China’s economy fuels all of its global endeavors and is the primary source of its strategic power, according to Dr. Ward. He also explained that the business and finance community needs to be aligned with the national strategy community. The DoD’s release of a list of 20 companies backed by the Chinese military is a step in the right direction, according to Dr. Ward, though the DoD must continue to shape what the US’s boundaries are in its economic engagement with China. Moreover, US government and non-government entities must pursue strategic disengagement from the PRC and encourage US allies to do the same. He elaborated that China has relied on US engagement for its economic, military, and technological advancements. Therefore, if the US and its allies cut China off from Western technology and capital, the US will be able to successfully outcompete China over time. To conclude, Dr. Ward summarized that China is a country that is preparing for military conflict both regionally and with the US at a time of its choosing, and now is the time for the US to begin to “dismantle China’s path to power.”

Speaker Session Recording

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