Iran’s Ballistic Missile Launch Criteria: Change or Continuity?

Author | Editor: Bragg, B. (NSI, Inc.)

Question of Focus

[Q2] Based on recent events (Accords, Soleimani, COVID), how has ballistic missile launch criteria changed? Other impacts on military readiness and response?

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The experts interviewed for this study do not see Iran’s recent operational use of its ballistic missiles as signaling a fundamental change in its foreign policy, which they characterize as deliberate, defensive, and with a long time horizon. Additionally, domestic conditions are increasingly constraining the ability of the regime to either expend resources or absorb costs, making military conflict an untenable option. Both Iran and the United States, Behnam Ben Taleblu, of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, contends, have an interest in keeping the lid on escalation. Similarly, several contributors agree that, if nothing else, Iran is going to limit its aggression in the short-term until it has a better sense of the direction the Biden administration will take (Bidwell, Liebl, Nader).

Despite this strategic consistency, the expert contributors note changes to Iran’s approach to testing its missiles, and its willingness to use them. Since 2017, Iran has demonstrated increasing willingness to deploy its missiles operationally, culminating in the January 2020 strikes against US bases in Iraq. While its battlefield use has become bolder, Iran’s approach to testing has, conversely, become more discrete; a change some experts ascribe to increased Western attention and pressure (Nader, Taleblu).

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