A New US-Iran Nuclear Agreement: What are the Chances?

Author | Editor: Popp, G. (NSI, Inc.)

Question of Focus

[Q1] In the next five years, how likely is it that Iran will be willing to negotiate a new nuclear treaty with the United States?

Bottom Line Up Front

Microsoft Word – NSI ViTTa_A New US-Iran Nuclear Agreement_CENTCOM Q1_final for posting.docx

Most of the expert contributors agree that, though not a certainty, it appears likely that Iran will be willing to reengage in some form of nuclear negotiations with the United States at some point over the next five years. The likelihood of a new nuclear agreement being reached between the two sides, however, is less certain. It is unclear as to whether Iran will be willing to negotiate an entirely new nuclear agreement with the United States, especially absent some form of United States recommitment to elements of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) agreement as an initial starting point. Moreover, for such an agreement to be reached, the United States will also need to be willing to reengage in negotiations. It is similarly unclear as to whether that will be the case. The United States’ self-described maximum pressure campaign against Iran has created notable burdens and constraints that are likely to drive Iran’s willingness to reengage in negotiations, but maximum pressure in itself is not a means to an end. If the end goal is a new nuclear agreement with Iran, then the United States will need to demonstrate a willingness to sincerely reengage in negotiations as well.

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