Escalation Management in Gray Zone Crises: A Proposed Toolkit
Speaker(s): Ellis, D. (University of Maryland); Elder, R. (George Mason University); Astorino-Courtois, A. (NSI)
Date: 22 March 2022
Speaker Session Summary
SMA hosted a speaker session with Mr. Devin Hayes Ellis (University of Maryland), Lt Gen (Ret) Robert Elder, PhD (George Mason University), and Dr. Allison Astorino-Courtois (NSI) as part of its SMA General Speaker Series.
Gray zone conflict—which is defined as any conflict that does not use overt military force—is becoming more prevalent as highly developed and economically interconnected countries seek to compete while avoiding an escalation to armed conflict. Mr. Ellis commented that if an actor is primarily competing in the gray zone, then it is focusing on its national security objectives. Countries that are competing in the gray zone are trying to avoid attribution and political or physical repercussions for their actions. Attribution avoidance is especially important when using military proxies for avoiding a larger military conflict. The presenters developed a model for gray zone conflict which shows how a country can manage for escalating competition in the gray zone. In this model, success represents a state of general deterrence, while failure can lead to a cyclical challenger-defender relationship which can lead directly to a war.
Maintaining or achieving this state of general deterrence will take all actors monitoring each other’s interests across all political, economic, and security domains. For deterrence, it is important for an actor to understand how its actions will be received by all others. To understand how actions will shape the gray zone’s environment, actors should probe each other’s interests and capabilities. However, Dr. Elder commented that testing other actors’ capabilities through the gray zone will cost certain actors their ambiguity. Furthermore, effective gray zone escalation management requires active interagency and multinational cooperation between partners and allies. This includes cooperation across government and private sectors with actors from relevant embassies, politicians, and economic influencers.
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