How Thick or Thin Is Russian Support for Putin’s War Against Ukraine?—Political Perspectives of Russian Elites and Mass Publics Before the Invasion: An Analysis of Survey Data (2020-2021)

March 2022 No Comments

Speaker(s): Sherlock, T. (United States Military Academy, West Point)

Date: 23 March 2022

Speaker Session Summary

SMA hosted a speaker session with Dr. Thomas Sherlock (Professor of Political Science, United States Military Academy, West Point) as part of its SMA EUCOM Speaker Series.

Russian President Vladimir Putin made a politically risky decision when ordering the invasion of Ukraine. Dr. Sherlock commented that survey data across Russia’s civilian population and its elites shows that the invasion is not popular. He commented that the support for Russia’s military invasion is probably even weaker than what the survey data shows. Dr. Sherlock acknowledged that Russia’s authoritarian regime and its lack of free press undoubtedly affected the survey’s findings.

The survey asked Russians whether it was better to achieve great power status through economic prowess or military power and fear. The general civilian population, population of Russian Elites, and Russian military members all view these challenges differently. While the survey shows that Elites are more likely to consider the overt use of Russia’s military a viable option for increasing Russia’s global standing, most Russians are more concerned with improving their socioeconomic standings than growing Russia’s military. Most Russians also view the EU as Russia’s best option for a future economic partner. However, members of the Russian military gave very different answers to the survey. The majority believe that it is better to be feared because of military capabilities than respected for economic prowess. Russian military members also consider China as Russia’s best option for a future economic and security partner. While most Russians believe it is best to use economic soft power to grow Russia’s political influence, there is still some support for using its military to exert influence in former Soviet States. Also, Dr. Sherlock commented that if Putin were to be removed from office, Russia’s policies would likely not change because he would likely be replaced with a high-ranking military official who holds very similar beliefs.