Degrees of Separation: Targeted Decoupling and the US-China Relationship
Speaker(s): Segal, S. (CSIS); Reynolds, M. (CSIS)
Date: 30 March 2022
Speaker Session Summary
SMA hosted a speaker session with Ms. Stephanie Segal(Non-resident Senior Associate, Economics Program, CSIS) and Mr. Matthew Reynolds (Research Associate, Economics Program, CSIS) as part of its SMA General Speaker Series.
As the US and China continue to compete for long-term strategic supremacy, it is important to remember that they are not competing in a closed system. Instead, their actions influence and are influenced by other actors. Ms. Segal commented that the US-China competition is ultimately a competition between democracy and authoritarianism. Increasing economic engagement between the US and China can decrease overall tensions. However, China is seeking to replace the US as the preeminent power in both the Asia Pacific and globally. Ms. Segal also acknowledged that the ongoing conflict in Ukraine adds a new level of analysis that may alter some of the group’s original findings relating to actors’ (namely, Russia’s, and potentially, China’s) risk tacking decisions.
Furthermore, actors’ rationale for risk taking is not uniform. This is also true among decision leaders within an organization or country. Because of this, it is important to establish a baseline understanding of risk taking among decision leaders. China has also expanded its lead as the world’s largest producer of goods, and China’s economy now has an even larger purchasing power than the US’s. However, there are steps that the US and its allies can take to confront China’s growing influence globally, including export controls and data and privacy protection. The US and its allies will need to work together to create a more cohesive front, especially on sharing and protecting data. The recent success of sanctions targeting Russia also increases the potential for similar sanctions to be used against China if it attacks Taiwan.
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