The Dilemmas Posed by the Great Power Competition on Political Transitions and the Security Landscape in the Sahel

Speaker: Dr. Joseph Sany (US Institute of Peace)

Date: 30 March 2023

Speaker Session Summary

SMA hosted a speaker session with Dr. Joseph Sany (United States Institute for Peace [USIP]) as part of its SMA “Anticipating the Future Operational Environment” (AFOE) Speaker Series.

The US, China, and Russia are locked in a global struggle for geopolitical dominance, which is beginning to become more prevalent on the African continent. Dr. Sany stated that the competition between these powers is more geopolitical than ideological; especially in relation to past geopolitical competitions, such as the Cold War. The three great powers are mostly interested in access to African countries’ seaports, critical minerals, and growing consumer markets. How they build their political relationships is driven by their perception of the continent. The US perceives Africa as a source of potential security threats and as a weak link in a chain of allies and partners, seeking to increase countries’ stability through aid. China views Africa as a land of economic opportunities, looking to grow political connections through trade. Russia views Africa as a group of countries seeking decolonization, fueling nationalistic movements through the arms trade. All three countries have made high-level political visits a regular tool for geopolitical growth, showing African countries that they are serious about political engagement. Also, Dr. Sany commented that recent shifts in US political doctrine shows a shift away from the US’ long-held opinion of the African continent as continent made up of security threats.

While the US, China, and Russia are using these tools to grow geopolitical influence on the continent, it is important to recognize that African countries have their own agency on who can grow geopolitical influence in their countries. Dr. Sany then shifted the presentation to discussing political transition in the Sahel region, which has experienced six successful political coups since 2018. He attributed the frequency and success of political coups to the states’ failure to deliver essential services, weak institutions and leadership, and inconsistencies in the multi-lateral political system. Also, the great power competition itself between the US, China, and Russia is influencing the Sahel’s security negatively. One such negative outcome includes a doubling down on militarization in the region with minimal accountability of the states and other actors being armed. Adding to the US’ advantages in the great power competition in Africa, 33% of Africans prefer an open democratic political system to either China’s one-party system or Russia’s autocracy, making it the most popular political system on the continent. For the US to ultimately win its geopolitical competition in Africa, Dr. Sany advocated for the US to: a) stay focused and engaged; b) work to change its perception of Africa as a security threat; and c) align diplomacy, development, and defense in the region. 

Briefing Materials

Biography:

Dr. Joseph Sany is the Vice President of the Africa Center at the United States Institute of Peace (USIP). Under Dr. Sany’s leadership, the Africa Center seeks to deepen, elevate, and expand USIP’s commitment to stem violent conflict in Africa by advancing dialogue and informing policy underpinned by evidence, experience, and learning. Dr. Sany has been working at the forefront of peacebuilding with civil society, governments, businesses, and international organizations in Africa for over 20 years.

In his previous role at FHI 360, Dr. Sany provided technical leadership in the design and implementation of peacebuilding and civil society development programs in several countries in Africa and Asia. He led the organizational and institutional capacity development strategy of many civil society organizations in Africa and advised the design, implementation, and dissemination of the annual USAID Civil Society Sustainability Index. Prior to his work at FHI 360, Dr. Sany advised international organizations and development agencies including MINUSTAH and the ECCAS on peacebuilding and development strategies.

Dr. Sany has researched, taught peacebuilding courses, and published scholarly articles on peacekeeping, peacebuilding, and civil society, including the book, “Reintegration of Ex-Combatants: A Balancing Act.” He currently writes about African development and politics in the blog African Praxis. He holds a doctorate in public policy and a master’s in conflict analysis and resolution from George Mason University.

This speaker session supported SMA’s Anticipating the Future Operational Environment (AFOE) project. For additional speaker sessions and project publications, please visit the AFOE project page.