Artificial Intelligence and Global Power

Speaker: Dr. Paul Scharre (CNAS)

Date: 28 June 2023

Speaker Session Summary

The development of artificial intelligence (AI) has drastically increased in speed and scope. The speed at which AI is being developed is increasing its implications for its use in militaries and economic competition between countries. AI will inevitably play a strong role in the US-China great power competition. Chinese president, Xi Jinping, even stated that technology and science is the main battlefield on which countries fight. Past industrialization has influenced past great power competitions. For example, Great Britain and Germany industrialized more quickly than Russia during the 18^th century, surpassing Russia and becoming the two strongest European economies. Dr. Scharre commented that despite China’s rapid development of AI, the US still has a strong scientific lead on its main geopolitical rival and is in a strong position to retain its lead. The competition for AI dominance will likely be decided by four factors: a) data collection, b) hardware and chip development, c) talent retention, and d) institutional strength.

Large datasets are the main tool used for machine learning. China’s large population and vast surveillance systems gives it a stronger domestic data collection capability than the US. However, China does not have the significant advantage in overall data collection that it appears to have. This is because US companies’ large global audiences and reach nullify the advantage that China’s large domestic population gives it. The US also has a significant advantage in hardware and talent retention. The US and its allies control much of the necessary underlying technology required for AI, including advanced computer chips. Also, 90% of Chinese PhD students who attend college in the US do not return to China, choosing to stay and work in the US. Dr. Scharre acknowledged that this could be a security risk because China is very active in industrial and intellectual espionage. China and the US are tied regarding their commercial companies’ ability to implement AI. Dr. Scharre emphasized that having the best or most powerful technology is not always the deciding factor in a competition. Instead, sometimes the winner is who best uses the technology at their disposal. 

Speaker Session Recording

Briefing Materials

Here’s a short clip on NPR All Things Considered about the book: 

Dr. Paul Scharre is the Executive Vice President and Director of Studies at the Center for a New American Security.  Scharre previously worked in the Office of the Secretary of Defense (OSD) where he played a leading role in establishing policies on unmanned and autonomous systems and emerging weapons technologies. He led the Department of Defense (DoD) working group that drafted DoD Directive 3000.09, establishing the department’s policies on autonomy in weapon systems. He also led DoD efforts to establish policies on intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance programs and directed energy technologies. Scharre was involved in the drafting of policy guidance in the 2012 Defense Strategic Guidance, 2010 Quadrennial Defense Review, and secretary-level planning guidance. Prior to joining OSD, Scharre served as a special operations reconnaissance team leader in the Army’s 3rd Ranger Battalion and completed multiple tours to Iraq and Afghanistan. He is a graduate of the Army’s Airborne, Ranger, and Sniper Schools and Honor Graduate of the 75th Ranger Regiment’s Ranger Indoctrination Program. Scharre has published articles in The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, CNN, TIME, Foreign Policy, Foreign Affairs, Politico, and USA Today, and has appeared on CNN, MSNBC, Fox News, NPR, and the BBC. He has testified before the House and Senate Armed Services Committees and has presented at the United Nations, NATO, the Pentagon, the CIA, and other national security venues. He holds a PhD in war studies from King’s College London and an MA in political economy and public policy and a BS in physics from Washington University in St. Louis.