Response To POTUS Executive Order

Executive Order — Using Behavioral Science Insights to Better Serve the American People.

Where Federal policies have been designed to reflect behavioral science insights, they have substantially improved outcomes for the individuals, families, communities, and businesses those policies serve

– President Barack Obama, 2015

By Robert Popp

On September 15, 2015 President Barack Obama released the Executive Order, Using Behavioral Science Insights to Better Serve the American People. Within this order the President encourages US agencies to develop strategies for applying behavioral science insights to programs and, where possible, rigorously test and evaluate the impact of these insights.

This is a directive that resonates deeply with me and with many of my social scientist colleagues. During the many years I have spent working in and with the US defense establishment I have become acutely aware of the great potential for insights from the wealth of knowledge imbedded in the behavioral and social sciences to enhance US security policy decision-making. I even established a research and analytic firm, NSI, in 2007 to foster and grow just this potential. Nearly a decade later, many scholars and scientists in the social science community have brought their vast experience and collective expertise in the behavioral and social sciences to bear on a wide variety of the most critical national security issues of our time.

During that same time period we have witnessed a mad rush to invest in and embrace the social sciences; on balance this is very good. Regrettably, however, demonstration of the true value and merit of the social sciences among many in the defense and security community has been derailed by ersatz “social scientists” following the money, and a rising skepticism and fatigue among policymakers and practitioners trying to determine how best to meaningfully employ the rigors of behavioral and social science in order to attain mission success. The confluence of these has resulted in a fallout and failure to scrutinize the appropriateness of proposed methods to the problem, which among other errors, shortchanges validation and stymies the effort to improve critically important predictive abilities in the behavioral and social sciences. So, when I saw the President’s Executive Order I was extremely heartened to find that the unique value of behavioral and social science to enhance US security policy decision-making is valued and appreciated at the highest levels of the US government.

Many social scientists that have supported the defense and security community live by and embody the ethos of this executive order. They recognized in the aftermath of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan that all too often the human side of the operational environment was not being fully considered in the analytical and decision-making process. To address this shortfall, social scientists — anthropologists, political scientists, economists, psychologists, sociologists, and linguists – many of whom are also rigorously trained in the scientific method and analytical approaches, offer a rich resource for military commanders and decision-makers to tap. Their wisdom and expertise across the social science disciplines can provide precisely the deep insights into the subtleties of human behavior across location, culture and context that are critically needed to improve decision-making outcomes and effectiveness.

For nearly a decade, they have been helping senior decision-makers, military commanders, and agencies within the national security apparatus navigate their most complex and difficult analytical challenges using the exact types of behavioral science insights that the President is calling for. Some examples consistent with the call for action by the President include applying nation state stability models to identify the political, economic and social drivers of instability and conflict within such diverse areas as Nigeria, Pakistan, the West Bank and Afghanistan; using neurocognitive social psychological constructs to study radicalization of populations and violent extremist organizations; conducting mix-method multi-disciplinary analyses to assess near- and long-term influence of ISIL in Iraq, Syria and the Middle East region as a whole; and applying discourse methods rooted in linguistics to understand the significance and inconsistencies in leader speeches and social media data during the civil uprising in the Arab Spring.

In these examples, the insights due to the behavioral and social sciences enabled a stronger foundation for better decision-making, improved understanding of unfamiliar environments, discovered and avoided unintentional consequences, and determined the implications of different futures.

I am deeply encouraged by the directive of this Executive Order and urge policymakers and practitioners within the defense and security community to utilize the proven methods in the behavioral and social sciences to improve their decision-making outcomes and effectiveness, and ultimately mission success.