The Qualities that Make Nations Competitive: Chinese and Russian Views

Speakers: Dr. Timothy Heath, Dr. Michael Mazarr, Clint Reach (RAND)

Date: 23 April 2024

Speaker Session Summary

A significant portion of the current literature exploring Great Power Competition (GPC) among the United States, China, and Russia predominantly reflects a Western perspective. However, a research group from RAND is seeking to provide a more comprehensive understanding by delving into historical and contemporary Chinese and Russian literature. Their report, part of a larger RAND study, shed light on how these nations perceive their strategic advantages. Chinese leaders perceive China’s strategic advantage as deeply rooted in its political institutions. Post-establishment of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), Chinese literature often typically espouses the virtues of the Chinese congress, its leadership, and societal structure, while frequently disparaging pre-1949 Marxism. However, Dr. Heath highlights President Xi Jinping’s increasing references to Chinese traditionalism as a source of strength, suggesting that Xi believes Marxist ideology no longer poses a significant threat to Chinese society. 

In contrast, Russian perspectives on strategic advantages vary. Mr. Reach’s findings indicate that while surveys of the Russian populace reveal aspirations for prosperity akin to Western countries, only a minority of Russian elites advocate for liberalization. Instead, a majority of elites, including President Putin, advocate for a stronger emphasis on Russian nationalist reforms. Central to this narrative is the projection of Russia as a formidable national power. Dr. Mazarr underscores the heavy reliance of both Russia and China on centralized government structures, nationalism, and cultural foundations of nationalism. However, he also points out their blind spots, including a lack of appreciation for how their approach may undermine their talent pool and an overconfidence in their ability to outlast the United States in a conflict.  

To read more of the presenters’ findings, then please view their report, “The Societal Basis for National Competitiveness: Chinese and Russian Perspectives.” 

Speaker Session Recording

Briefing Materials

Report: https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA2611-1.html

Biographies:

Timothy R. Heath is a senior international defense researcher at RAND. Prior to joining RAND, Heath had over fifteen years of experience in the U.S. government researching and analyzing military and political topics related to China. In addition to his publications with RAND, Heath has published numerous articles and two books. Fluent in Mandarin Chinese, he has extensive experience analyzing China’s national strategy, politics, ideology, and military, as well as Asian regional security developments. He has a Ph.D. in political science from George Mason University and an M.A. in Asian studies from The George Washington University.

Michael J. Mazarr is a senior political scientist at RAND and a professor of policy analysis at the Pardee RAND Graduate School. Previously, he worked at the U.S. National War College, where he was professor and associate dean of academics; as president of the Henry L. Stimson Center; senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies; senior defense aide on Capitol Hill; and as a special assistant to the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. His primary interests are U.S. defense policy and force structure, disinformation and information manipulation, East Asian security, nuclear weapons and deterrence, and judgment and decision-making under uncertainty. Mazarr holds a Ph.D. in public policy from the University of Maryland.

Clint Reach is an international defense researcher at RAND. He graduated from Kansas State University with a Bachelor’s degree in Management Information Systems and a Master’s degree in Political Science. He also holds a Master’s degree in Russian and Eurasian studies from Johns Hopkins SAIS. Reach served for nine years in the U.S. Navy as a Russian linguist in various positions in the Department of Defense. During his time in the Navy, he participated in New Start Treaty inspections, deployed to Baghdad to provide intelligence support to the Army during the Iraqi “Surge,” and was sent to Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, to defuse a situation involving a Russian-speaking detainee. In 2014, Reach received the Navy Language Professional of the Year award. Prior to joining RAND in 2015, Reach worked for a short time at the Office of the Secretary of Defense for Policy – Russia, Ukraine, and Eurasia.