Shades of Grim: Scenarios for Ukraine and Global Order

Speakers: Prof. Luis Simón & Ms. Lotje Boswinkel (Centre for Security, Diplomacy and Strategy at the Brussels School of Governance, Vrije Universiteit Brussel)

Date: 16 July 2024

Speaker Session Summary

The ongoing war in Ukraine remains unresolved, and its outcome is widely debated among politicians, researchers, and military practitioners. In their recent CSDS paper “Shades of Grim: Scenarios for Ukraine and Global Order,” Prof. Simón and Ms. Boswinkel explore how the conflict between Ukraine and Russia intersects with global power competition, particularly among the United States, Russia, and China. A key point of discussion in the paper is the potential for a decreased US role in the defense of Ukraine. The presenters suggest that Europe should aim to take the lead in supporting Ukraine, allowing the United States to focus more on the looming threat of China in the Pacific. This shift would help the United States allocate its resources and strategic attention more effectively. 

The report aims to clarify the political and strategic uncertainties, opportunity costs, and global dynamics surrounding the war in Ukraine. It outlines four potential pathways for the conflict: 1) Ukrainian Victory, 2) Russian Victory, 3) Political Settlement, and 4) Protracted Conflict. The presenters also discussed “wild card” global scenarios that could affect the trajectory of the war in Ukraine. These include a potential Chinese attack on Taiwan, which would significantly shift U.S. strategic priorities, and the possibility of Russia using a tactical nuclear weapon, which would escalate the conflict to a new level of danger and uncertainty. 

Speaker Session Recording

Briefing Materials

Link to CSDS In-Depth Paper: Shades of Grim: Scenarios for Ukraine and Global Order – CSDS (vub.be)

Biographies:

Luis Simón is Director of the Centre for Security, Diplomacy and Strategy at the Brussels School of Governance, Vrije Universiteit Brussel. He is also the Director of the Brussels Office of the Elcano Royal Institute, as well as a non-resident Senior Fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. He is the recipient of a European Research Council consolidator grant and focuses on European security, transatlantic security and Asian security.

Lotje Boswinkel is a Researcher at the Centre for Security, Diplomacy and Strategy at the Brussels School of Governance, Vrije Universiteit Brussel. Here research interests include alliances, defence strategies, deterrence and European security. She previously held positions at the Hague Centre for Strategic Studies and the EU Institute for Security Studies.