The Defender’s Dilemma: Why countering grayzone aggression is so difficult (and what options Western governments do have)

Speaker: Elisabeth Braw (Atlantic Council)

Date: 5 September 2024

Speaker Session Summary:

Western governments, including the United States, face significant challenges in identifying gray zone aggression. This form of aggression is often difficult to detect before the attack is fully underway, as it can originate from any source at any time. A key characteristic of gray zone aggression is that it rarely justifies a military response, making it difficult for governments to determine the appropriate course of action. This challenge becomes even more pronounced when the target is not a government but a private company. Moreover, activities generally considered benign, such as foreign direct investment, could be viewed as forms of aggression depending on the motivations of the investing country. 

The ambiguity surrounding gray zone aggression complicates the response strategies of the United States and other nations. What is certain, however, are the negative effects of this type of aggression, including a decline in public trust in liberal democratic institutions and governments. Ms. Braw noted that this erosion of trust makes it harder to counter gray zone activities, such as disinformation campaigns. She explained that smaller countries with strong public trust in government are more effective at countering disinformation and other forms of gray zone aggression due to their populations’ confidence in government-sourced information. Ms. Braw also highlighted that governments should promote media literacy, thereby positioning populations to be more resilient against gray zone activities. 

To read more analysis from Ms. Braw on how to counter gray zone aggression, check out her book, The Defender’s Dilemma: Identifying and Deterring Gray-Zone Aggression.

Speaker Session Recording

Briefing Materials

Article: National resilience is a crucial part of defense. Here are the countries doing it right. – Atlantic Council

Biography: Elisabeth Braw is a senior fellow with the Atlantic Council’s Transatlantic Security Initiative in the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security, where she focuses on defense against gray-zone and hybrid threats as well as the intersection between geopolitics and the globalized economy. She’s also a columnist with Foreign Policy and Politico Europe and the author of the award-winning Goodbye, Globalization: The Return of a Divided World (Yale University Press: 2024). She leads the Transatlantic Security Initiative’s “Threats to the global maritime order” project.

Braw was previously a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and a senior research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute. She’s the author of God’s Spies (2019) and The Defender’s Dilemma: Identifying and Deterring Gray-Zone Aggression (2022), a member of GALLOS Technologies’ advisory board, a member of the United Kingdom’s National Preparedness Commission, a member of the Krach Institute for Tech Diplomacy’s advisory council, and an adviser to Willis Towers Watson’s research arm. Prior to joining academia, she worked in the private sector following a career as a journalist.