American Statecraft and the Challenge of Emerging Powers
Speakers: Dr. Christopher S. Chivvis (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace) & Beatrix
Geaghan-Breiner (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace)
Date: 23 October 2024
Speaker Session Summary
The United States has primarily focused on China’s geopolitical rise over the past two decades and the implications of a near-peer competitor to US interests. However, several other emerging state powers are attempting to leverage their new geopolitical and, at times, military power to influence regional and global events. According to Dr. Chivvis, the original catalyst for this study was the difficulty the US faced in integrating these emerging powers into a US-led coalition on Ukraine. He identified ten countries in the Global South as the most important emerging powers. These include Brazil, Indonesia, and Nigeria, and Türkiye, who were selected due to their geopolitical significance and economic power.
These ten nations have enough geopolitical influence to either obstruct or support US efforts in advancing its geopolitical interests. Collectively, they represent 32% of the global population and 20% of the world’s gross domestic product. A concerning observation is that none of these countries have imposed sanctions on Russia and many are seeking to strengthen political ties with China, though they also do not wish to weaken ties with the United States. The presenters shared data showing that economic engagement, geographical position, and other factors play a significant role in how these countries align with the United States. They concluded by noting that it is unlikely these countries will fully align with either the United States or China and Russia. Instead, these states are expected to navigate both sides in ways that best serve their own self-interests.
Speaker Session Recording
Briefing Materials
Biographies:
Dr. Chris Chivvis is a senior fellow and director of the American Statecraft Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. He has more than two decades of experience working on U.S. foreign policy and national security challenges. He most recently served as the U.S. national intelligence officer for Europe. At Carnegie, Chivvis leads policy-focused research aimed at developing realistic U.S. strategy for an era of great power competition and building a foreign policy that serves the needs of the American people.
Chivvis’ experience with U.S. foreign policy spans government, academia, and the think tank world. Before joining the National Intelligence Council, he was the deputy head of the RAND Corporation’s international security program and worked in the Defense Department. He also has held positions at multiple universities and think tanks in the United States and Europe.
Chivvis is also the author of three scholarly books and several monographs and articles. His commentary has appeared in the New York Times, Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, the National Interest, National Public Radio, and several other outlets.
Chris holds a PhD from Johns Hopkins, where he teaches courses on international history and U.S. foreign policy.
Beatrix Geaghan-Breiner is a research analyst for the American Statecraft Program. She received a BA from Columbia University in 2022, where she studied the history of U.S. foreign policy. Prior to joining Carnegie, she worked as a researcher at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft in their Grand Strategy program.
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