Analytic Techniques for Nuclear Strategy Analysis

A Guide to Analytic Techniques for Nuclear Strategy Analysis.

Author | Editor: Bragg, B. & Popp, G. (NSI, Inc).

The Concepts & Analysis of Nuclear Strategy (CANS) project undertaken for US Strategic Command (USSTRATCOM) was tasked to examine the utility of alternative analytic techniques for assessing nuclear force attributes and sufficiency under a variety of changed conditions. The CANS software developed during this effort is designed to enhance the planning process by guiding the analyst through the process of selecting appropriate alternate analytic techniques.

Using the CANS software1, an analyst first starts with a question. They then select the appropriate level of analysis and the availability and type of data for answering that question. The application highlights the analytic techniques that may be used to help answer the question. The analyst can read a brief description of the technique and the resources are required to implement a research design using that technique. The analyst may also read an in-depth write up of how to use the technique in the context of nuclear deterrence, and in some instances examples of the application of the technique to the CANS problem space. This guide is a compilation of all the write-ups produced for the CANS software. These write-ups fall into two categories:

PART 1: Generic technique write-ups

These focus on a particular analytic technique. These provide the reader with a thorough introduction to a specific analytic technique. They are intended to provide enough information to enable the reader to determine the utility and practicality of that technique to problem they wish to examine. They are not intended as a guide for the application of that technique.

At the end of each write-up is a requirements section that discusses the data, time, tools, cost, skill set and expertise required to implement such a technique. For the purposes of comparison a coding scheme (outlined below) was developed to provide user with a way of comparing between different techniques.

PART 2: Examples of the application of modeling techniques to the CANS problem space

As part of the CANS effort various modeling and analysis projects were undertaken. These were designed to both demonstrate the utility of a specific technique to the nuclear strategy context and provide further insight into relevant questions. As well as providing detailed reports of their efforts, contributors to the CANS modeling effort also provided brief write- ups of their work for the CANS Software.

 

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