AI Will Change War

Speaker: General John R. Allen (USMC, Ret.); and Amir Husain (Founder & CEO, SparkCognition)

Date: 16 December 2021

Speaker Session Summary

SMA hosted a speaker session with General John R. Allen, USMC (Ret) and Mr. Amir Husain (Founder & CEO, SparkCognition) as part of its SMA INSS/PRISM Speaker Series.

The potential for blending the character of war (the types of technologies used in war) and the nature of war (the human domain) is increasing as autonomous systems are used more frequently on the battlefield. There is also increasing likelihood that the time required to complete the Observe, Orient, Decide, Act (OODA) loop will be reduced to near zero in a “hyperwar.” Gen Allen defined “hyperwar” as the acceleration of conflict through the emergence of advanced and advancing technologies. Gen Allen stressed that quick movement through the OODA loop should be critical in US leaders’ strategy, especially when a new technology is introduced. This rapid motion will force United States’ opponents to close their OODA loop to zero, leading to a moral collapse. As hyperwar becomes more common, the United States must look to become an early adopter of these technologies in order to gain the advantage of speed. Although there is a moral dilemma surrounding the use of automated and autonomous weapons in war, US adversaries are already investing heavily in these systems. Thus, the US will make decisions less quickly, be more susceptible to strategic surprise, be slower to adapt, and have less target accuracy than its opponent if it lags behind on implementing these technologies in a conflict. History has shown that this is the case, and the autonomous wars of the future will be no different.

Mr. Husain illustrated what hyperwar will look like and outlined the implications of using artificial intelligence (AI) on the battlefield. SparkCognition uses practical vignettes in order to model what some of these scenarios will look like in a hyperwar. Through these vignettes, Mr. Husain has learned that: a) efficiency in operations will be tied in large part to AI; b) advanced technology (e.g., software that enables deep learning) has already proliferated widely; c) the winners of a hyperwar will balance cost and competence; d) platforms enablers should be the focus, as opposed to the platforms themselves; e) unmanned systems are where most of the weapon-making industry’s future innovation is focused; and f) new partnerships of all types are poised to impact the world geopolitically, but they are also a source of technology competition. An increased focus on the use of real intel-based programs, the correlation of forces, and sensor fusion is also critical in order to identify enemy capabilities and those capabilities’ penetration ability. To conclude, Mr. Husain stressed that deeper applications of AI need to be explored by US decision makers in the dawn of hyperwar.

Speaker Session Recording

Note: We are aware that many government IT providers have blocked access to YouTube from government machines during the pandemic in response to bandwidth limitations. We recommend viewing the recording on YouTube from a non-government computer or listening to the audio file (below), if you are in this position.

Briefing Materials

Biographies:

Gen. John R. Allen currently serves as president of the Brookings Institution. He is a retired U.S. Marine Corps four-star general and former commander of the NATO International Security Assistance Force and U.S. Forces in Afghanistan. Prior to his role at Brookings, General Allen served as senior advisor to the secretary of defense on Middle East Security as well as special presidential envoy to the Global Coalition to Counter ISIL. He is the first Marine to command a theater of war, as well as the first Marine to be named commandant of midshipmen for the U.S. Naval Academy.

Beyond his operational and diplomatic credentials, General Allen has led multiple professional military educational programs, including as director of the Marine Infantry Officer Program and commanding officer of the Marine Corps Basic School. He was also the Marine Corps fellow to the Center for Strategic and International Studies and the first Marine officer to serve as a term member of the Council on Foreign Relations, where today he is a permanent member.

General Allen is the co-author of Turning Point: Policymaking in the Era of Artificial Intelligence as well as a co-author of Future War and the Defence of Europe.  He holds a Bachelor of Science in operations analysis from the U.S. Naval Academy, where in 2021 he was declared a Distinguished Graduate by the Naval Academy Alumni Association. General Allen also holds a Master of Arts in national security studies from Georgetown University, a Master of Science in strategic intelligence from the Defense Intelligence College (now National Intelligence University), and a Master of Science in national security strategy from the National Defense University.

Mr. Amir Husain is a serial entrepreneur, inventor, technologist, and author based in Austin, Texas. He has been named Austin’s Top Technology Entrepreneur of the Year, listed as an Onalytica Top 100 Artificial Intelligence Influencer, and received the Austin Under 40 Technology and Science Award, among several other accolades recognizing his work in artificial intelligence. Amir serves on the Board of Advisors for The University of Texas at Austin Department of Computer Science and on the NATO Maritime Unmanned Systems Innovation Advisory Board, and is also a member of the Council on Foreign Relations. 

In 2013, Amir incorporated SparkCognition, an artificial intelligence company, where he has served as the Founder and CEO since its inception. SparkCognition has scaled rapidly, gaining a client roster that now features dozens of the largest companies in the world. Since its founding, SparkCognition has received widespread recognition, including being ninth on the Wall Street Journal’s Top Tech Companies to Watch in 2018, listed on the 2017 CNBC Disruptor 50, being named the fastest-growing company in Central Texas by Austin Business Journal in 2017, and ranking on the CB Insights AI 100 list in 2017, 2018, 2019, and 2020. 

In November 2018, Amir became founding CEO of SkyGrid, a Boeing and SparkCognition joint venture that is building the aerial operating system to power the next century of aviation. In 2020, Amir joined the inaugural Board of SparkCognition Government Systems (SGS), the world’s first full-spectrum AI company devoted entirely to government and national defense, chaired by former Deputy Secretary of Defense, Robert O. Work. 

The SMA INSS/PRISM Speaker Series description and list of the other sessions in this series can be downloaded here.