Analysis and Artificial Intelligence in Integrated Campaigning

February 2020 No Comments

“Analysis and Artificial Intelligence in Integrated Campaigning”

Authors | Editor: Pike, T. (US Army); Canna, S. (NSI, Inc.)

Executive Summary

Integrated Campaigning requires the development and execution of US foreign policy across the whole of the US Government (USG). Such coherent policy development and implementation necessitates a common perspective to analyze the situation that provides (1) an accurate description of operating environment and (2) supports synergistic action across the USG with minimal coordination. The current analytic approach for the Department of Defense and the Joint Intelligence Preparation of the Operating Environment (JIPOE) has a strong foundation but can be improved to both better accomplish these requirements and more effectively support Integrated Campaigning. Advancing from the JIPOE’s systems foundation, the USG must adopt a perspective that views the behavior of a foreign entity as the result of the adaption and competition of layers of interdependent groups. Although this description may defy intuition, an updated JIPOE framework (and some examples) will help develop intuition for the dynamics of complex adaptive systems. Due to the complexity of these systems, computational tools are inextricably intertwined with their analyses and have the added benefit of being able to encode knowledge for more effective coordination. An improved analytic framework combined with an understanding of existing and emerging artificial intelligence (AI), and a subset of computational tools, allows for an assessment of how computation fits into both the Joint Intelligence Process and Joint Planning Process to support Integrated Campaigns. This shift in understanding has far reaching consequences for all of the Joint Staff directorates but particularly the J2, J3, and J5, and has the potential to revolutionize the conduct of foreign policy.