Black Swans and Gray Rhinos in the CENTCOM AOR: Vigilance Against the Unsuspected and Keeping Our Eyes on the Prize

Speakers: Dr. Jonathan Wilkenfeld (University of Maryland); Dr. Claudio Cioffi-Revilla (George Mason University); LTC Tom Pike (National Intelligence University); Dr. Sean Lawson. (University of Utah); Dr. Larry Kuznar (NSI, Inc.)

Date: 4 March 2020

Speaker Session Preview

SMA hosted a panel discussion as a part of its SMA CENTCOM Speaker Series. The panelists included Dr. Jonathan Wilkenfeld (University of Maryland), Dr. Claudio Cioffi-Revilla (George Mason University), LTC Tom Pike (National Intelligence University), and Dr. Sean Lawson (University of Utah). The moderator was Dr. Larry Kuznar (NSI, Inc.).

Dr. Kuznar began by defining black swans as “high-impact, unpredictable surprises induced by complex interactions” and gray rhinos as “high-impact, probable events that individuals should not have neglected but did.”

Next, Dr. Cioffi-Revilla stated that strategic excellence aimed at lasting success should be the goal that CENTCOM strategists and planners are trying to achieve, rather than coping or muddling along. He then focused on gray rhinos, highlighting that more effort needs to be taken to observe gray rhinos at the provincial, local, international, and global levels, as opposed to just the country level. He also recommended that the combatant commands (COCOMs) consider whether the current area of responsibility (AOR) distinctions need to be adjusted. Dr. Cioffi-Revilla spoke about black swans as well. He emphasized the importance of understanding features of complexity and the high dimensionality of situations. He also stated that understanding the relevant distribution of black swan events of interest is essential and that data analysis itself is insufficient; one must add mathematical modeling to the mix. To conclude, Dr. Cioffi-Revilla suggested that by collecting a small dataset of black swans, one could compare their characteristics and potentially model future events’ onset. The knowledge gleaned from such models could then be integrated into COCOMs’ strategy.

Dr. Lawson based his portion of the discussion on two of his research projects, which examine the way in which the US defense community applies theories of nonlinear science and complexity. He began with a reminder that butterflies are “the other winged creatures of chaos.” Much of human history is shaped by such events, and some may be passing without our immediate recognition of them. He stated that what we perceive as large, visible black swans may actually be ripple effects of other events caused by more mundane, less noticeable butterflies. Consequently, Dr. Lawson advised that US decision makers look for the butterflies in order to spot (and ideally prevent) black swans. He further suggested that rather than predicting black swans, the COCOMs could monitor the emergence of certain conditions that make it more likely for a black swan event to occur. He also cautioned that US decision makers be particularly wary of the effects of feedback and the possibility of self-fulfilling prophesies. To conclude, Dr. Lawson stated that the region’s ability to respond to some gray rhino events, such as climate change, is linked to good governance—something that CENTCOM should promote.

LTC Pike then suggested that CENTCOM direct its focus to the various groups that are competing for resources and their specific dynamics in order to influence them. This is where CENTCOM will find the gray rhinos and black swans emerging, rather than at the aggregate nation state level. LTC Pike also stated that US decision makers could influence the adaptive path of populations in order to (ideally) produce their own gray rhinos. To do this, decision makers should monitor these groups and identify ways in which they (the decision makers) can avoid being predictable. Simulations can also help identify high-level points of leverage and keep costs low. However, LTC Pike added that the success of these efforts is unpredictable, and simulations will never produce results that are exactly right. LTC Pike concluded by stating that CENTCOM should 1) gain a higher level of understanding about how populations in its AOR are interacting and behaving and 2) replace building blocks or adapt data streams if a component in a simulation is not working.

Lastly, Dr. Wilkenfeld stated that the US is facing gray rhino situations that could eventually turn into black swan situations. He proposed that human security is at the core of black swans’ potential to occur and how they can affect international patterns moving forward. He then presented five threats that groups face in the international system today: 1) unstable governance and underperforming economies, 2) ineffective conflict management (both at the local and international level), 3) uncoordinated global development strategy due to widespread corruption, 4) insufficient focus on how diversity can lead to tensions and conflict, and 5) inability to deal with the impact of human activity on climate in a timely manner. These threats also converge oftentimes in a way that individuals didn’t anticipate in the long term. Dr. Wilkenfeld then stated that one can minimize the impact of black swans in the future by collecting and analyzing data and metrics on these events. He also stressed the need for collective action in order to address critical global issues and crises. “We all live downstream,” according to Dr. Wilkenfeld; “problems do not exist until we have been led to them, and as we tackle these problems, it is critical to understand where they came from.”

Speaker Session Audio Recording

Briefing Materials

Biographies:

Dr. Claudio Cioffi-Revilla is a University Professor Emeritus at George Mason University, and an independent scientist and consultant. He received his first doctorate in quantitative political and social sciences from the University of Florence, Italy (1975) and a second Ph.D. in mathematical models in International Relations from the State University of New York (1979). From1977 to 2019, he taught at UNC Chapel Hill, and held tenured professorial positions at the University of Illinois at Urbana Champaign, the University of Colorado-Boulder, and George Mason University, where he became the first Professor of Computational Social Science, founding chair of the Department of Computational Social Science, and founding director of the Center for Social Complexity (2002–2019). His research interests include climate and human security, conflict modeling and deterrence theory, disasters and risk analysis, and social complexity theory and research. His current research projects include theory and applied research on multi-scale disasters in coupled human-artificial-natural systems (CHANS), climate change, and advanced formal methods for hybrid functions in complex systems (foundations of nabladot calculus). His research has been supported by DARPA, NSF, ONR, DHS, NCTC, and ODNI, among other agencies. He is a co-founder and first President of the Computational Social Science Society of the Americas (CSSSA), a member of the American Mathematical Society (AMS, operator theory), SSEER (Social Science Extreme Events Research), KSS (Knowledge Systems for Sustainability), and DOD OSD SMA, among other scientific and policy networks. As a Jefferson Science Fellow of the US National Academy of Sciences, he served as Senior S&T Adviser at the US Department of State/INR, and a DNI’s Galileo Awards Finalist. He has authored over one hundred peer-reviewed scientific and policy publications, including seven books, the most recent being
Introduction to Computational Social Science: Principles and Applications, 2nd edition, pp. 600 (Springer,
2017). In 2020 Dr. Cioffi was elected as honorary Fellow of the AAAS (American Association for the
Advancement of Science).

Dr. Sean Lawson is an Associate Professor in the Department of Communication at the University of Utah and an Adjunct Scholar at the Modern War Institute at West Point. His research focuses on the relationships among science, technology, and security. In particular, he focuses on the intersections of national security and military thought with new media, information, and communication technologies (ICTs). His most recent book, Cybersecurity Discourse in the United States, explores the use of cyber-doom rhetoric in the U.S. public policy debate about cybersecurity. His first book, Nonlinear Science and
Warfare traced the use of chaos theory, complexity theory, and network science in the development of
theories of information-age warfare. Dr. Lawson received his Ph.D. in Science and Technology Studies from Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute in 2008. He has an MA in Arab Studies from the School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University and a BA in History from California State University, Stanislaus.

Lieutenant Colonel Tom Pike is a Joint qualified, Strategic Intelligence officer in the US Army. Tom is faculty at the National Intelligence University and Co-Director of the Anticipatory Intelligence and Adaptive Influence (AI2) Center. Tom earned his PhD in Computational Social Science (CSS) from George Mason University in 2019. Tom has studied complex systems and its application to foreign policy from the tactical to the strategic level for the past decade and this interest drove him to attend both the CSS PhD program (as the program is based on complex systems) and the prestigious Santa Fe Institute’s Complex Systems Summer School. He has served in the infantry (both light and mechanized) and in military intelligence specialties.

Dr. Jonathan Wilkenfeld (University of Maryland) received his Ph.D. in political science from Indiana University in 1969. He has been a Professor of Government and Politics at the University of Maryland since 1969, where he served as chair of the department from 1990 to 2002. He has had periodic visiting appointments at Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies and in the Department of International Relations at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem. He has lectured at universities in China, Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, Brazil, Argentina, Chile, Germany, France, Sweden, Hungary, Poland, Israel, Dubai, and Egypt. Wilkenfeld’s work has spanned several additional disciplines, including most prominently social psychology and computer science. He has published 12 books on conflict processes, international crises, and conflict resolution, and his research has been published in leading journals in these fields, including Journal of Conflict Resolution, International Studies Quarterly, Journal of Peace Research, Political Psychology, IEEE Intelligent Systems, and Artificial Intelligence Journal. His work has been recognized with many awards, including Innovation in Teaching with Technology Award, University of Maryland 2001; American Council on Education/AT&T Foundation Award for Technology as a Tool for Internationalization, 2003; University of Maryland Landmark Award in International Affairs, 2003; International Studies Association Distinguished Scholar Award, 2004, and University of Maryland Distinguished Scholar Teacher Award 2009. In 2008, he was invited to give the keynote address at the annual meeting of the Society for Mathematical Psychology. Wilkenfeld has had research grants from the National Science Foundation (6), US Department of Education (7), US Institute of Peace (3), IBM (2), US Department of Homeland Security (2), US Department of Defense, NCR, Sun Microsystems, Hewlett Foundation, Carnegie (1 each), and the Folke Bernadotte Academy (Sweden).
Wilkenfeld has founded and/or directed some of the leading projects in the field of conflict processes and
analysis. These include the Interstate Behavior Analysis (IBA) Project in the 1970s, the International
Communications and Negotiations Simulation (ICONS) project beginning in the 1980s through today, the
International Crisis Behavior (ICB) Project with Michael Brecher since the mid-1970s, the Minorities at Risk
(MAR) and Minorities at Risk Organizational Behavior (MAROB) Projects (founded by Ted Gurr), as well as
the Crisis and Negotiations (CAN) Project since the late 1990s. CAN facilitated Wilkenfeld’s move into the
area of experimental research, bringing to political science some of the methodologies which had
heretofore been associated most closely with psychology and social psychology. He has been Director of
the Center for International Development and Conflict Management (CIDCM) at the University of
Maryland, and he has been one of the principles of the National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism
and Responses to Terrorism (START) since its founding in 2005, headquartered at Maryland.

Dr. Lawrence A. Kuznar (Chief Cultural Sciences Officer, NSI, Inc., Professor of Anthropology, Purdue University-Fort Wayne) Dr. Kuznar conducts anthropological research relevant to counterterrorism and other areas of national security. His research ranges from advanced statistical and geographical modeling of social instability, to discourse analysis of adversaries including North Korea, China, Russia, Iran, and ISIS (Daesh) to provide leading indicators of intent and behavior. He has developed computational models of genocide in Darfur and tribal factionalism in New Guinea, mathematical models of inequality and conflict, and integrated socio-cultural databases for geo-spatial analysis of illicit nuclear trade and bioterrorism. Dr. Kuznar’s recent research has been funded by academic sources, the Office of the Secretary of Defense
Strategic Multi-Layer Analysis, Air Force Research Lab (AFRL), the Human Social Cultural Behavior (HSCB) modeling program of the Department of Defense, and by the US Army Corps of Engineers. He has also served on the HSCB Technical Progress Evaluation panel and a National Counterterrorism Center (NCTC) net assessment panel. He conducted extensive research among the Aymara of southern Peru and with the Navajo in the American southwest. Dr. Kuznar has published and edited several books and numerous peer-reviewed articles in journals such as American Anthropologist, Current Anthropology, Social Science Computer Review, Political Studies, Field Methods, and Journal of Anthropological Research. Dr. Kuznar earned his Ph.D. and M.A. in Anthropology, and a M.S. in Mathematical Methods in the Social Sciences from Northwestern University. His B.A. in Anthropology is from Penn State.

This speaker session supported SMA’s CENTCOM project. For additional speaker sessions and project publications, please visit the CENTCOM project page.