Benefits of Coalition Presence in Iran
Question (R3 QL4): What are the critical elements of a continued Coalition presence, following the effective military defeat of Da’esh [in Iraq] that Iran may view as beneficial? Author | Editor: Astorino-Coutois, A. (NSI, Inc). Dr. Omar Al-Shahery of Carnegie Mellon University offers a critical caveat in considering the question posed for this Quick Look. […]
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Aims of Shia Militias Post-ISIL
Question (R3 QL3): What are the aims and objectives of the Shia Militia Groups following the effective military defeat of Da’esh? Author | Editor: Astorino-Coutois, A. (NSI, Inc). Referring to the Shi’a Militias as a unitary or homogenous entity masks the reality that what are now dozens of groups in Iraq were established at different […]
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Da’esh Transition to Insurgency
Question (R3 #2): How does Da’esh’s transition to insurgency manifest itself, and what actions should the Coalition take to minimize their ability to maintain either military effectiveness or popular support? Author | Editor: DeGennaro, P. (TRADOC G-2/G-27). The self-proclaimed Islamic State (IS) or Da’esh, as the group has become known, transition to insurgency is underway. […]
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Political and Military Progress in Iraq
Question (R3 #1): Are Government of Iraq initiatives for political reconciliation between the sectarian divide moving in step with military progress against Da’esh, and what conditions need to be met in order to accommodate the needs of the Sunni population? Author | Editor: Canna, S. (NSI, Inc). Winning the War, but Losing the Peace “With […]
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Influence of Israel-Palestine Conflict
Question (R2#12): How does the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict influence, affect, and relate to current conflicts in the region? Author | Editor: Wilkenfeld, J. (University of Maryland, ICONS). The Israel-Palestine conflict has been a constant presence in the Middle East since Israel’s independence in 1948. But even earlier in the 20th century, Arabs and Jews were in […]
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Iran and Saudi Arabia Influence
Question (R2 QL 11): What major economic, political and security (military) activities does KSA and Iran currently conduct in Bahrain, Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, and Yemen to gain influence? What are KSA and Iran’s ultimate goals behind these activities? What motivates KSA and Iran towards these goals? What future activities might KSA and Iran conduct in […]
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Commerce in the Strait of Hormuz
Question: What internal factors would influence Iran’s decision to interfere with the free flow of commerce in the Strait of Hormuz or the Bab el Mandeb? Author | Editor: Bragg, B. & Polansky (Pagano), S. (NSI, Inc). Iran’s Strategic Interests All of the SMEs either directly or indirectly referenced Iran’s strategic interests, and how these […]
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Da’esh Move to ZeroNet
Question (Follow-up QL3): The response to QL5 (see Appendix A) noted that ISIL is moving to ZeroNet platform for peer-to-peer messaging, which is extremely robust to distributed denial-of-service (DDOS) attack/other counter measures. What effect could this have on Intel efforts? Author | Editor: Robinson, S., Perez, E., Derrick, D. & Ligon, G. (University of Nebraska, […]
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Ensuring an Agile and Strong USG
Question (LR5): Given the generational nature of the threats we face, what changes in organization, legislation, authorities, resources, infrastructure, education, and other areas should the USG make to become as agile, resilient, survivable, sustainable, technologically and intellectually dominant as required to protect our constitutional system and prevail in any conflict from the present until 2050? […]
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Population Support for ISIL in Iraq
Question (QL3): What does primary source opinion research tell us about population support for ISIL in ISIL-held Iraq and globally outside the Combined Joint Operation Area (CJOA) (Syria and Iraq)? Author | Editor: Canna, S. (NSI, Inc). Opinion polls conducted by independent outfits in 2015 and 2016 derive the same result: the vast majority of […]
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