SMA CENTCOM Panel Discussion—Black Swans and Gray Rhinos in the CENTCOM AOR: Vigilance Against the Unsuspected and Keeping Our Eyes on the Prize
Authors | Editors: Dr. Lawrence Kuznar (NSI, Inc.) & Nicole (Peterson) Omundson (NSI, Inc.) Executive Summary Four panelists with deep knowledge and experience in the USCENTCOM AOR and with complex systems modeling were asked to reflect on how to think about and anticipate surprises in the USCENTCOM area of responsibility (AOR), especially Black Swan surprises that are the product […]
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Hunting Gray Rhinos and Black Swans: Statistical and Machine Learning Models of Political Stability and Terrorism
Authors | Editor: Lawrence Kuznar (NSI, Inc.); Jeffrey Day (NSI, Inc.); and Eric Kuznar (NSI, Inc.) This publication was released as part of the SMA project, “CENTCOM Regional and Population Dynamics in the Central Region.” For more information regarding this project, please click here. Executive Summary Strategic surprise, the realization that one’s knowledge and assumptions are wrong and the adversary […]
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SMA CENTCOM Panel Discussion on Radicalization (Part I)
Speakers: Dr. Skye Cooley (Oklahoma State University); Nicole (Peterson) Omundson (NSI, Inc.); Dr. Nicholas Wright (Intelligent Biology); Dr. Sabrina (Pagano) Polansky (NSI, Inc.); Dr. Karl Kaltenthaler (University of Akron); Dr. Lawrence Kuznar (NSI, Inc.); Howard Lee (US Army TRADOC) Date: 10 March 2020 Speaker Session Preview SMA hosted a panel discussion as a part of its SMA CENTCOM Speaker Series. The panelists […]
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Thresholds in Cyberspace
Speaker: Schneider, J. (Hoover Institution, Stanford University) Date: 11 March 2020 Speaker Session Preview SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Dr. Jacquelyn Schneider (Hoover Institution, Stanford University) as a part of its SMA GeneralSpeaker Series. Dr. Schneider first stated that the creation and management of thresholds is critical to the success of US strategy. She then cited Connable et al.’s when defining […]
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Denazification in Germany: Lessons for Deradicalization in the CENTCOM AOR
Author | Editor: Dorondo, D. (Western Carolina University) Report Preview Coming soon! Download Publication Coming soon!
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Deradicalization in History and Psychology: A Selective Review of the Literature
Authors: Peter Suedfeld (University of British Columbia); Lindsy Grunert (University of British Columbia); and Bradford Morrison (University of British Columbia) This publication was released as part of the SMA project, “CENTCOM Regional and Population Dynamics in the Central Region.” For more information regarding this project, please click here. Summary Governments continue to pour money into deradicalization programs with the goal of rehabilitating violent extremists. Are […]
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Population Dynamics and Radicalization in the CENTCOM AOR: Post-Brexit EU2 + 1 and the UN vs. a US-led Coalition of the Willing
Author: Dorondo, D. (Western Carolina University) This publication was released as part of the SMA project, “CENTCOM Regional and Population Dynamics in the Central Region.” For more information regarding this project, please click here. Introduction In 2020, the States of the European Union (EU), as well as NATO’s European members and those States not enjoying membership of […]
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Tips for Consuming Intelligence
Speaker: Gibson, K. (Retired) Date: 12 March 2020 Speaker Session Preview SMA hosted a speaker session presented by LTG Karen Gibson (Retired) as a part of its SMA General Speaker Series. LTG(R) Gibson discussed how decision makers (and civilians) can be wise consumers of intelligence and shape the intelligence environment. She first stated that using intelligence strategically requires strategy to begin with. Once […]
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Sino-Russian Competition: Self-Inflicted Competition in Central Asia?
Authors: Sarah Canna (NSI, Inc.) and Eric Kuznar (NSI, Inc.) This publication was released as part of the SMA project, “CENTCOM Regional and Population Dynamics in the Central Region.” For more information regarding this project, please click here. Report Preview China and Russia support each other’s political and economic objectives both globally and in the USCENTCOM area of responsibility […]
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Assessing Buffers and Drivers of Conflict in the Arab Gulf
Authors: Weston Aviles (NSI, Inc.); Tom Rieger (NSI, Inc.); and Alex Goncharova (NSI, Inc.) This publication was released as part of the SMA project, “CENTCOM Regional and Population Dynamics in the Central Region.” For more information regarding this project, please click here. Bottom Line Up Front Experts contend that the risk of militarization of the dispute between Qatar and the Quartet is low. However, prolonged tension […]
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