Outer Space in the Media Space: How Russian and Chinese News Media Present the Commercialization and Militarization of the Space Domain
Authors: Dr. Skye Cooley (Oklahoma State University); Randy Kluver (Oklahoma State University); Dr. Ethan Stokes (University of Alabama) Report Preview This report details Russian and Chinese media presentations of operations and intentions in the space domain to their respective populations. These presentations provide us insight into how members of these nation states understand their government’s […]
Continue ReadingThe Shape of the Future Operating Environment: How Our Adversaries Have Learned to Stop Worrying and Ignore the Bomb
Author: Bragg, B. (NSI) Video Preview In July of this year, at the request of USSTRATCOM, SMA initiated an effort to address eight questions regarding the implications of the increasing numbers, and expanding capabilities, of US nuclear adversaries. This report addresses two of those questions: [Q2] What are US competitors (Russia, China, Iran, DPRK) doing […]
Continue ReadingSMA 21st Century Strategic Challenges: Strategy and Planning for Diterrence and Triterrence
Author: Astorino-Courtois, A. (NSI) This publication was released as part of the SMA project “Risk of Strategic Deterrence Failure.” For more information regarding this project, please click here. Question of Focus [Q1] Does deterrence theory change if the US faces two nuclear-armed, near-peer competitors? If so, how? What are the impacts to strategy? If not, […]
Continue ReadingGuide to Analytic Techniques for Nuclear Strategy Analysis
Authors | Editors: Belinda Bragg (NSI, Inc.); George Popp (NSI, Inc.); and Allison Astorino-Courtois (NSI, Inc.) This publication was released as part of the SMA project “Risk of Strategic Deterrence Failure.” For more information regarding this project, please click here. Question of Focus [Q8] What are key analytic approaches that USSTRATCOM planners might use to assess […]
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China’s Historical Plutonium Production
Authors: Dr. John Swegle (National Strategic Research Institute) and Dr. Christopher Yeaw (National Strategic Research Institute) This publication was released as part of the SMA project “Risk of Strategic Deterrence Failure.” For more information regarding this project, please click here. Publication Preview In this paper, we reevaluate China’s production of weapons-grade plutonium (WGPu) in order to […]
Continue ReadingModeling Risk of Strategic Deterrence Failure
Authors: Lt. Gen (Ret) Robert Elder (George Mason University) This publication was released as part of the SMA project “Risk of Strategic Deterrence Failure.” For more information regarding this project, please click here. Publication Preview George Mason University (GMU) worked with Strategic Multilayer Assessment (SMA) Subject Matter Experts (SMEs) to model risk of strategic deterrence failure, […]
Continue ReadingThe Challenge of Russia’s Non-Strategic Nuclear Weapons: Western Air Supremacy as One Russian Justification for NSNW
Authors: Roy Boone (National Strategic Research Institute, University of Nebraska); David Rehbein (National Strategic Research Institute, University of Nebraska); John Swegle (National Strategic Research Institute, University of Nebraska); Christopher Yeaw (National Strategic Research Institute, University of Nebraska) This publication was released as part of the SMA project “Risk of Strategic Deterrence Failure.” For more information […]
Continue ReadingThe Escalatory Attraction of Limited Nuclear Employment For Great Power Competitors of the United States
Authors: Christopher Yeaw (National Strategic Research Institute, University of Nebraska) This publication was released as part of the SMA project “Risk of Strategic Deterrence Failure.” For more information regarding this project, please click here. Publication Preview The United States has entered into a dangerously new era in which, for the first time in our nation’s history, […]
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Invited Perspective: Anticipating the Effects of Emerging Technologies on Nuclear Deterrence
Author: Melanie Sisson (Brookings Institution) This publication was released as part of the SMA project “Risk of Strategic Deterrence Failure.” For more information regarding this project, please click here. Invited Perspective Preview The effectiveness of nuclear deterrence depends upon mutual confidence in second-strike capabilities – for nuclear deterrence to work, nuclear-armed competitors must all believe that […]
Continue ReadingThe Role of Nuclear-Conventional Intermingling on State Decision-making and the Risk of Inadvertent Escalation
Authors: Benjamin Bahney (Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory [LLNL]) and Dr. Anna Péczeli (Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory [LLNL]) This publication was released as part of the SMA project “Risk of Strategic Deterrence Failure.” For more information regarding this project, please click here. Publication Preview Questions Addressed Framing the Problem In practice, there are three main forms of […]
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