West Africa Exploitable Conditions Model
Author: Dr. Samuel Henkin (NSI, Inc.) This publication was released as part of the SMA project “Anticipating the Future Operational Environment (AFOE) Phase III.“ For more information regarding this project, please click here. Publication Preview The West Africa Exploitable Conditions Model (WAECM) is an empirical, concept-based, system-of systems model tailored to the region of West Africa, […]
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Understanding and Countering China’s Maritime Gray Zone Operations
Speakers: Dr. Todd Helmus & Dr. Krista Romita Grocholski (RAND) Date: 30 January 2025 Speaker Session Summary SMA hosted a speaker session with Dr. Todd Helmus (RAND) and Dr. Krista Romita Grocholski (RAND) as part of its SMA INDOPACOM Speaker Series. China is seeking to assert control over and advance its interests in large portions […]
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Who Will We—and They—be on Day 30 or Day 1000 in Deterrence?
Author: Dr. Nicholas Wright (Intelligent Biology) This publication was released as part of the SMA project “21st Century Strategic Deterrence Frameworks.” (SDF) For more information regarding this project, please click here. Publication Preview The Joint Concept for Competing (JCC; Feb 2023) states that a ‘competitive mindset also means embracing strategic competition as a persistent and enduring […]
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Security Risks of Climate Action
Speaker: Andrew Gilmour (Berghof Foundation) Date: 15 January 2025 Speaker Session Summary SMA hosted a speaker session with Andrew Gilmour (Berghof Foundation) as part of its SMA AFOE Phase III Climate Effects Speaker Series. The negative effects of climate change on societies and their security are well-documented; however, the speed and scale at which climate […]
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Saudi Vision 2030 vs Iran Vision 1979
Speaker: Karim Sadjadpour (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace) Date: 8 January 2025 Speaker Session Summary SMA hosted a speaker session with Karim Sadjadpour (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace) as part of its SMA CENTCOM Speaker Series. Saudi Arabia and Iran have a deeply rooted rivalry stemming from their contrasting visions for the future of their […]
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Russian Adaptation to Sanctions: The Military Industrial Complex and Regional Dynamics
Speaker: Elina Ribakova (Peterson Institute for International Economics; Director of the International Program at Kyiv School of Economics.) Date: 10 December 2024 Speaker Session Summary The Russian economy has proven stubbornly resilient to Western sanctions. Ms. Ribakova discussed this resilience through two lenses: the military industrial complex and the economic convergence of Russia’s regions. While […]
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When Rambo Meets the Red Cross: Civil-Military Engagement in Fragile States
Speaker: Dr. Stanislava P. Mladenova (Center for Human Rights and Humanitarian Studies, Brown University; Irregular Warfare Initiative, US Military Academy at West Point) Date: 6 December 2024 Speaker Session Summary Non-governmental organizations (NGOs) and their military counterparts often have a confrontational relationship, with both sides suggesting that the other should “stay in their respective lanes.” […]
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Escalation Management in the Early Stages of International Crisis
Authors: Dr. Kyle Beardsley (Duke University), Dr. Jonathan Wilkenfeld (START University of Maryland), & Phuong Pham (Duke University) This publication was released as part of the SMA project “21st Century Strategic Deterrence Frameworks.” (SDF) For more information regarding this project, please click here. Publication Preview: This report evaluates how crisis actors respond to adversary actions […]
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U.S. Military Theories of Victory for a War with the People’s Republic of China
Speakers: Jacob Heim (RAND) & Nathan Beauchamp-Mustafaga (RAND) Date: 13 November 2024 Speaker Session Summary The United States has not had to seriously consider conflict escalation with a near-peer adversary that could result in a conflict that ends in large-scale destruction since the Cold War. However, it must now consider the potential for escalating toward that exact kind […]
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American Statecraft and the Challenge of Emerging Powers
Speakers: Dr. Christopher S. Chivvis (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace) & BeatrixGeaghan-Breiner (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace) Date: 23 October 2024 Speaker Session Summary The United States has primarily focused on China’s geopolitical rise over the past two decades and the implications of a near-peer competitor to US interests. However, several other emerging state powers […]
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