Denying the Seeds of Future Conflict
Question (R6.1): What conditions (demographic, political, etc.) should exist on the ground in the Middle Euphrates River Valley and the tri border (Syria/Jordan/Iraq) region to deny the seeds of future conflict from being planted – particularly taking into account the assumed intention of Iranian proxy forces to establish a Shia “land bridge?” Which of these […]
Continue ReadingCompetition Short of Armed Conflict with a Regional Power
Question (R6.7): Are there examples from US history of competition short of open conflict1 with a regional power? What lessons exist that may be applied to resolving competing US/Iran objectives short of open conflict? Which examples are most relevant—pre- or post-World War II? Author | Editor: Polansky (Pagano), S. (NSI, Inc.) Executive Summary The experts […]
Continue ReadingGlobal Power Competition
Question (R6.2): In the event that the US/Coalition is challenged by another global power [Russia for the purposes of this response], what are the second and third order effects in the USCENTCOM area of responsibility? Author | Editor: Jafri, A. (NSI, Inc). Executive Summary As Russia continues to challenge United States’ power and influence around […]
Continue ReadingStrategic Implications of PRC’s Base in Djibouti
Question (R5.6): What are the strategic implications of the People’s Republic of China (PRC’s) new base in Djibouti? What will be the effect on the Iran-PRC relationship? Author | Editor: S. Canna (NSI, Inc,). Executive Summary Background There are a number of legitimate reasons that account for China’s decision to break with decades of tradition […]
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Extent of Iran’s Ability to Influence Iraqi Elections
Question (R5.3): How much influence can Iran wield in the next Iraqi election? Author | Editor: S. Canna (NSI, Inc,). Executive Summary Overview of Electoral System Iraq is a parliamentary democracy and, as the April 2018 elections approach, political jockeying for votes and influence has already begun. Iraq has a unicameral house called the Council […]
Continue ReadingGulf Cooperation Council Stability & Influence
Question (R5.5): How stable is the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), and to what extent can the United States rely on the GCC to influence foreign policy objectives in the region? What are the implications of the changing dynamics between GCC members? Author | Editor: W. Aviles (NSI, Inc,). Executive Summary The Qatari crisis that is […]
Continue ReadingEvolution of US Foreign Policy in Middle East
Question R5.4: How should United States foreign policy evolve in the region post-Islamic State of Iraq and Syria? What are the dynamics in the region and what will be the implications of this for the USG? Author | Editor: P. DeGennaro (TRADOC G-27) & S. Canna (NSI, Inc,). Executive Summary US foreign policy makers struggle […]
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Risks of Security Outpacing Diplomacy in Syria & Iraq
Question (R5.2): What are the risks associated with the security situation in Syria/Iraq outpacing diplomatic progress and policy in the region? What should be done about it? Author | Editor: S. Canna (NSI, Inc,). Executive Summary Our experts noted that we cannot say with certainty what the future security environment will look like in the […]
Continue ReadingOpportunities & Threats from POTUS Middle East Visit
Question (R5.1): What opportunities and threats should United States Central Command (USCENTCOM) be postured for as the result of a President of the United States (POTUS) visit to the Area of Responsibility (AOR)? What is the impact on stakeholders’ willingness to counter Iran along with the likelihood of partnering with the United States/coalition? Author | […]
Continue ReadingFuture of ISIS: What Experts Think Will Happen Next?
Future of ISIS: What Do Experts Think Will Happen Next? Author | Editor: Nicole (Peterson) Omundson (NSI, Inc.). At its zenith in 2014, the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) controlled more than 100,000 square kilometers of territory. ISIS seized control over major cities, notably Mosul and Raqqa, which contributed to increasing disorder in […]
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