Discussion with NPS Experts – Dec 2016
SMA Reachback Panel Discussion with Experts from Naval Postgraduate School. Author | Editor: Robinson, G. (Naval Postgraduate School) & Canna, S. (NSI, Inc). On 1 November 2016, a team of experts from the Naval Postgraduate School (NPS) prepared a two-hour panel discussion based loosely on the first round of CENTCOM¹s reach back questions. The team […]
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Post-ISIL Iraq Scenarios
Question (V4): Post-ISIL Iraq Scenarios. What are the most likely post-lSIL Iraq scenarios with regards to Political, Military, Economic, Social, Information, Infrastructure, Physical Environment, and Time (PMESII-PT)? Where are the main PMESII-PT friction points, which are most acute, and how are they best exploited to accomplish a stable end state favorable to U.S. and coalition […]
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Influence Future of Syria
Question (V5): Factors that Will Influence the Future of Syria. What are the factors that will influence the future of Syria and how can we best affect them? Author | Editor: Astorino-Coutois, A. (NSI, Inc). Experts varied from pessimistic (chronic warfare) to cautiously optimistic regarding their expectations for the future of Syria, yet mentioned many […]
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Iran Nuclear Deal Implications
Question (V6): Strategic and Operational Implications of the Iran Nuclear Deal. What are the strategic and operational implications of the Iran nuclear deal on the US-led coalition¹s ability to prosecute the war against ISIL in Iraq and Syria and to create the conditions for political, humanitarian and security sector stability? Author | Editor: Astorino-Coutois, A. […]
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Countering the ISIL Fight
Question (V7): Objectives and Motivations of Indigenous State and Non-State Partners In the Counter-Isil Fight. What are the strategic objectives and motivations of indigenous state and non-state partners in the counter-ISIL fight? Author | Editor: Astorino-Coutois, A. (NSI, Inc). The following are high-level results of a study assessing Middle East regional dynamics based on the […]
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Mosul Coalition Fragmentation
Mosul Coalition Fragmentation: Causes and Effects. Author | Editor: Astorino-Coutois, A. (NSI, Inc) & Krakar, J. (TRADOC G-27). This paper assesses the potential causes and effects of fragmentation on the Counter-ISIL coalition. This coalition consists of three distinct but interrelated subsets: the CJTF-OIR coalition; the regional coalition, de facto allies of convenience, who may provide […]
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Socio-Political Stability in Syria and Iraq
Options to Facilitate Socio-Political Stability in Syria and Iraq. Author | Editor: Astorino-Coutois, A. (NSI, Inc) & Cabayan, H. (Joint Staff). This White Paper presents the analytic results from Strategic Multi-layer Assessment (SMA) project touching on the Middle East and North Africa. The objective is to suggest options to manage conflict in the region and […]
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Understand and Respond to Contemporary Russia
Finland, After ‘hybrid warfare’, what next? – Understanding and responding to contemporary Russia. Author | Editor: Bettina Renz ja Hanna Smith (Office of the Prime Minister of Finland). More than two years after Russia’s annexation of Crimea, the West continues coming to terms with the implications of this event. As discussed by the project’s the […]
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Part IV: Results of 5 of 8 Conflicts in Iraqi-Syria
Part IV: Analysis of the Dynamics of Near East Futures: Assessing Actor Interests, Resolve and Capability in 5 of the 8 Regional Conflicts. Author | Editor: Astorino-Coutois, A. (NSI, Inc). This briefing is the final part of a four-part study exploring the dynamics of the central Middle East conflict system. Part II describes the system […]
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Part III: Use Case Analysis of Iraqi-Syrian Conflict
Unpacking the Regional Conflict System surrounding Iraq and Syria—Part III: Implications for the Regional Future: Syria Example of Actor Interests, Resolve and Capabilities Analysis. Author | Editor: Astorino-Coutois, A. (NSI, Inc). This is Part III of a larger study exploring the dynamics of the central Middle East conflict system. Part I described the system and […]
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