The Real and Present Risk of Low-Yield Nuclear Weapons on the Battlefield
Speaker(s): Lowther, A. (Director, Department of Multi-Domain Operations, Army Management Staff College) Date: 12 January 2022 Speaker Session Summary SMA hosted a panel discussion with Dr. Adam Lowther (Director, Department of Multi-Domain Operations, Army Management Staff College) as part of its SMA STRATCOM Speaker Series. Russia’s and China’s status as near-peer nuclear competitors with the US […]
Continue ReadingChallenges to 21st Century Deterrence (Part III)
Speakers: Dr. Allison Astorino-Courtois (NSI) and Dr. Belinda Bragg (NSI) Date: 7 January 2022 Speaker Session Summary SMA hosted a panel discussion with Dr. Allison Astorino-Courtois (NSI) and Dr. Belinda Bragg (NSI) as as part of its SMA STRATCOM Risk of Strategic Deterrence Failure Speaker Series. As US adversaries reach nuclear parity—or near nuclear parity—with the US, […]
Continue ReadingThe Shape of the Future Operating Environment: How Our Adversaries Have Learned to Stop Worrying and Ignore the Bomb
Author: Bragg, B. (NSI) Video Preview In July of this year, at the request of USSTRATCOM, SMA initiated an effort to address eight questions regarding the implications of the increasing numbers, and expanding capabilities, of US nuclear adversaries. This report addresses two of those questions: [Q2] What are US competitors (Russia, China, Iran, DPRK) doing […]
Continue ReadingSMA 21st Century Strategic Challenges: Strategy and Planning for Diterrence and Triterrence
Author: Astorino-Courtois, A. (NSI) This publication was released as part of the SMA project “Risk of Strategic Deterrence Failure.” For more information regarding this project, please click here. Question of Focus [Q1] Does deterrence theory change if the US faces two nuclear-armed, near-peer competitors? If so, how? What are the impacts to strategy? If not, […]
Continue ReadingGuide to Analytic Techniques for Nuclear Strategy Analysis
Authors | Editors: Belinda Bragg (NSI, Inc.); George Popp (NSI, Inc.); and Allison Astorino-Courtois (NSI, Inc.) This publication was released as part of the SMA project “Risk of Strategic Deterrence Failure.” For more information regarding this project, please click here. Question of Focus [Q8] What are key analytic approaches that USSTRATCOM planners might use to assess […]
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China’s Historical Plutonium Production
Authors: Dr. John Swegle (National Strategic Research Institute) and Dr. Christopher Yeaw (National Strategic Research Institute) This publication was released as part of the SMA project “Risk of Strategic Deterrence Failure.” For more information regarding this project, please click here. Publication Preview In this paper, we reevaluate China’s production of weapons-grade plutonium (WGPu) in order to […]
Continue ReadingModeling Risk of Strategic Deterrence Failure
Authors: Lt. Gen (Ret) Robert Elder (George Mason University) This publication was released as part of the SMA project “Risk of Strategic Deterrence Failure.” For more information regarding this project, please click here. Publication Preview George Mason University (GMU) worked with Strategic Multilayer Assessment (SMA) Subject Matter Experts (SMEs) to model risk of strategic deterrence failure, […]
Continue ReadingThe Challenge of Russia’s Non-Strategic Nuclear Weapons: Western Air Supremacy as One Russian Justification for NSNW
Authors: Roy Boone (National Strategic Research Institute, University of Nebraska); David Rehbein (National Strategic Research Institute, University of Nebraska); John Swegle (National Strategic Research Institute, University of Nebraska); Christopher Yeaw (National Strategic Research Institute, University of Nebraska) This publication was released as part of the SMA project “Risk of Strategic Deterrence Failure.” For more information […]
Continue ReadingThe Escalatory Attraction of Limited Nuclear Employment For Great Power Competitors of the United States
Authors: Christopher Yeaw (National Strategic Research Institute, University of Nebraska) This publication was released as part of the SMA project “Risk of Strategic Deterrence Failure.” For more information regarding this project, please click here. Publication Preview The United States has entered into a dangerously new era in which, for the first time in our nation’s history, […]
Continue ReadingChallenges to 21st Century Deterrence (Part II)
Speakers: Lt Gen (Ret) Robert Elder, PhD (George Mason University); James Siebens (Defense Strategy & Planning Program, Stimson Center); Dr. Christopher Yeaw (National Strategic Research Institute, University of Nebraska) Date: 9 December 2021 Speaker Session Summary SMA hosted a panel discussion with Lt Gen (Ret) Robert Elder, PhD (George Mason University), Mr. James A. Siebens […]
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