Invited Perspective: Anticipating the Effects of Emerging Technologies on Nuclear Deterrence
Author: Melanie Sisson (Brookings Institution) This publication was released as part of the SMA project “Risk of Strategic Deterrence Failure.” For more information regarding this project, please click here. Invited Perspective Preview The effectiveness of nuclear deterrence depends upon mutual confidence in second-strike capabilities – for nuclear deterrence to work, nuclear-armed competitors must all believe that […]
Continue ReadingThe Role of Nuclear-Conventional Intermingling on State Decision-making and the Risk of Inadvertent Escalation
Authors: Benjamin Bahney (Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory [LLNL]) and Dr. Anna Péczeli (Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory [LLNL]) This publication was released as part of the SMA project “Risk of Strategic Deterrence Failure.” For more information regarding this project, please click here. Publication Preview Questions Addressed Framing the Problem In practice, there are three main forms of […]
Continue ReadingChallenges to 21st Century Deterrence (Part I)
Speakers: Benjamin W. Bahney (Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory [LLNL]); Dr. Anna Péczeli (Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory [LLNL]); and Dr. Melanie Sisson (Brookings Institute) Date: 30 November 2021 Speaker Session Summary SMA hosted a panel discussion with Mr. Benjamin W. Bahney (Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory [LLNL]), Dr. Anna Péczeli (Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory [LLNL]), and Dr. […]
Continue ReadingCyber Risks in Nuclear Escalation Scenarios
Speaker(s): Lin, H. (Senior Research Scholar, Center for International Security and Cooperation & Hank J. Holland Fellow in Cyber Policy and Security, Hoover Institution, Stanford University) Date: 27 October 2021 Speaker Session Summary SMA hosted a speaker session with Dr. Herb Lin (Hank J. Holland Fellow in Cyber Policy and Security, Hoover Institution & Senior […]
Continue ReadingThe Challenges of Multipolar Deterrence: Theory and Evidence
Speaker: Dr. Vipin Narang (Frank Stanton Professor of Nuclear Security and Political Science, Massachusetts Institute of Technology) Date: 29 September 2021 Speaker Session Summary SMA hosted a speaker session with Dr. Vipin Narang (Frank Stanton Professor of Nuclear Security and Political Science, Massachusetts Institute of Technology), as part of its SMA STRATCOM Risk of Strategic Deterrence […]
Continue ReadingKey Elements of the 2021 Nuclear Posture Review
Speaker: Dr. Anna Péczeli (Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory) Date: 21 July 2021 Speaker Session Summary SMA hosted a speaker session with Dr. Anna Péczeli (Postdoctoral Research Fellow, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory) as part of its SMA STRATCOM Risk of Strategic Deterrence Failure Speaker Series. The purpose of a Nuclear Posture Review (NPR) is to assess the […]
Continue ReadingDelaying Doomsday: The Politics of Nuclear Reversal
Speaker(s): Mehta, R. (University of Nebraska, Lincoln) Date: 12 May 2021 Speaker Session Summary SMA hosted a speaker session with Prof. Rupal Mehta (University of Nebraska–Lincoln) as a part of its SMA STRATCOM Academic Alliance Speaker Series. Prof. Mehta focused on her book project during her brief. The book’s overall thesis is that external pressure can […]
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Russian and Chinese Influence in Iran: Sources and Future Trends
Author | Editor: Bragg, B. (NSI, Inc.) Questions of Focus [Q3] What is the source of Russian and Chinese influence in Iran, and how have recent events (incl. COVID-19) changed this? Report Preview Among all the experts interviewed for this report, there was a general consensus that relations between Iran and both Russia and China are driven […]
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A New US-Iran Nuclear Agreement: What are the Chances?
Author | Editor: Popp, G. (NSI, Inc.) Question of Focus [Q1] In the next five years, how likely is it that Iran will be willing to negotiate a new nuclear treaty with the United States? Bottom Line Up Front Microsoft Word – NSI ViTTa_A New US-Iran Nuclear Agreement_CENTCOM Q1_final for posting.docx Most of the expert contributors agree […]
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Iran’s Ballistic Missile Launch Criteria: Change or Continuity?
Author | Editor: Bragg, B. (NSI, Inc.) Question of Focus [Q2] Based on recent events (Accords, Soleimani, COVID), how has ballistic missile launch criteria changed? Other impacts on military readiness and response? Report Preview The experts interviewed for this study do not see Iran’s recent operational use of its ballistic missiles as signaling a fundamental change in […]
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