Russian Interests in Syria
Question (R2 Special): What are indicators of change in Russian strategic interests in Syria? Author | Editor: Astorino-Coutois, A. (NSI, Inc). This paper found that Russia¹s strategic interests in the Middle East are fairly stable. What could change is how Russia prioritizes its interests in the wake of the US election and change in administration. […]
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Discussion with NPS Experts – Dec 2016
SMA Reachback Panel Discussion with Experts from Naval Postgraduate School. Author | Editor: Robinson, G. (Naval Postgraduate School) & Canna, S. (NSI, Inc). On 1 November 2016, a team of experts from the Naval Postgraduate School (NPS) prepared a two-hour panel discussion based loosely on the first round of CENTCOM¹s reach back questions. The team […]
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Shaping Post-ISIL Iraq and Region
Question (LR1): What opportunities are there for USCENTCOM to shape a post-ISIL Iraq and regional security environment promoting greater stability? Author | Editor: Astorino-Coutois, A. (NSI, Inc). The expert contributors to this paper agree on the relationship between regional security and stability in Iraq: A strong and stable Iraqi government is a fundamental component of […]
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ISIL Propaganda Effects
Question (QL5): What are the predominant and secondary means by which both large (macro-globally outside the CJOA, such as European, North African and Arabian Peninsula) and more targeted (micro- such as ISIL-held Iraq) audiences receive ISIL propaganda? Author | Editor: Astorino-Coutois, A. (NSI, Inc). The contributors to this Quick Look demonstrate clearly the breadth and […]
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Benefits of Coalition Presence in Iran
Question (R3 QL4): What are the critical elements of a continued Coalition presence, following the effective military defeat of Da’esh [in Iraq] that Iran may view as beneficial? Author | Editor: Astorino-Coutois, A. (NSI, Inc). Dr. Omar Al-Shahery of Carnegie Mellon University offers a critical caveat in considering the question posed for this Quick Look. […]
Continue ReadingAims of Shia Militias Post-ISIL
Question (R3 QL3): What are the aims and objectives of the Shia Militia Groups following the effective military defeat of Da’esh? Author | Editor: Astorino-Coutois, A. (NSI, Inc). Referring to the Shi’a Militias as a unitary or homogenous entity masks the reality that what are now dozens of groups in Iraq were established at different […]
Continue ReadingPolitical and Military Progress in Iraq
Question (R3 #1): Are Government of Iraq initiatives for political reconciliation between the sectarian divide moving in step with military progress against Da’esh, and what conditions need to be met in order to accommodate the needs of the Sunni population? Author | Editor: Canna, S. (NSI, Inc). Winning the War, but Losing the Peace “With […]
Continue ReadingCommerce in the Strait of Hormuz
Question: What internal factors would influence Iran’s decision to interfere with the free flow of commerce in the Strait of Hormuz or the Bab el Mandeb? Author | Editor: Bragg, B. & Polansky (Pagano), S. (NSI, Inc). Iran’s Strategic Interests All of the SMEs either directly or indirectly referenced Iran’s strategic interests, and how these […]
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Population Support for ISIL in Iraq
Question (QL3): What does primary source opinion research tell us about population support for ISIL in ISIL-held Iraq and globally outside the Combined Joint Operation Area (CJOA) (Syria and Iraq)? Author | Editor: Canna, S. (NSI, Inc). Opinion polls conducted by independent outfits in 2015 and 2016 derive the same result: the vast majority of […]
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Undermine ISIL’s “Virtual Caliphate”
Question (LR4): What is the strategic framework for undermining ISIL’s “Virtual Caliphate?” Author | Editor: Canna, S. (NSI, Inc). Iran’s Approach in Iraq Shifting to a Virtual Caliphate As ISIS loses ground in Syria and Iraq, the organization seems to be evolving to emphasize the information battlefront to both maintain and gain support from sympathetic […]
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