Commerce in the Strait of Hormuz
Question: What internal factors would influence Iran’s decision to interfere with the free flow of commerce in the Strait of Hormuz or the Bab el Mandeb? Author | Editor: Bragg, B. & Polansky (Pagano), S. (NSI, Inc). Iran’s Strategic Interests All of the SMEs either directly or indirectly referenced Iran’s strategic interests, and how these […]
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Da’esh Move to ZeroNet
Question (Follow-up QL3): The response to QL5 (see Appendix A) noted that ISIL is moving to ZeroNet platform for peer-to-peer messaging, which is extremely robust to distributed denial-of-service (DDOS) attack/other counter measures. What effect could this have on Intel efforts? Author | Editor: Robinson, S., Perez, E., Derrick, D. & Ligon, G. (University of Nebraska, […]
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Population Support for ISIL in Iraq
Question (QL3): What does primary source opinion research tell us about population support for ISIL in ISIL-held Iraq and globally outside the Combined Joint Operation Area (CJOA) (Syria and Iraq)? Author | Editor: Canna, S. (NSI, Inc). Opinion polls conducted by independent outfits in 2015 and 2016 derive the same result: the vast majority of […]
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Undermine ISIL’s “Virtual Caliphate”
Question (LR4): What is the strategic framework for undermining ISIL’s “Virtual Caliphate?” Author | Editor: Canna, S. (NSI, Inc). Iran’s Approach in Iraq Shifting to a Virtual Caliphate As ISIS loses ground in Syria and Iraq, the organization seems to be evolving to emphasize the information battlefront to both maintain and gain support from sympathetic […]
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Turkish Army Syrian Intervention
Question (QL2): What are the strategic and operational implications of the Turkish Army’s recent intervention in northern Syria for the coalition campaign plan to defeat ISIL? What is the impact of this intervention on the viability of coalition vetted indigenous ground forces, Syrian Defense Forces and Jabhat Fatah al-Sham (formerly ANF)? Author | Editor: Astorino-Coutois, […]
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Iran’s Post-ISIL Strategic Calculus
Question (LR2): What will be Iran’s strategic calculus regarding Iraq and the region post-ISIL? How will JCPOA impact the calculus? What opportunities exist for the US/Coalition to shape the environment favorable to our interests? Author | Editor: Astorino-Coutois, A. (NSI, Inc). Iran’s Approach in Iraq A number of the Iran SMEs who contributed to this […]
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Counter Information Messaging
Question (V1): What is Missing from Counter Messaging in the Information Domain. What are USCENTCOM and the global counter-ISIL coalition missing from countermessaging efforts in the information domain? Author | Editor: Canna, S. (NSI, Inc). “Western countries have failed to match the coordination, intensity, not to mention zealotry of the communication effort of [Daesh’s] global, […]
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Post-ISIL Iraq Scenarios
Question (V4): Post-ISIL Iraq Scenarios. What are the most likely post-lSIL Iraq scenarios with regards to Political, Military, Economic, Social, Information, Infrastructure, Physical Environment, and Time (PMESII-PT)? Where are the main PMESII-PT friction points, which are most acute, and how are they best exploited to accomplish a stable end state favorable to U.S. and coalition […]
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Influence Future of Syria
Question (V5): Factors that Will Influence the Future of Syria. What are the factors that will influence the future of Syria and how can we best affect them? Author | Editor: Astorino-Coutois, A. (NSI, Inc). Experts varied from pessimistic (chronic warfare) to cautiously optimistic regarding their expectations for the future of Syria, yet mentioned many […]
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Iran Nuclear Deal Implications
Question (V6): Strategic and Operational Implications of the Iran Nuclear Deal. What are the strategic and operational implications of the Iran nuclear deal on the US-led coalition¹s ability to prosecute the war against ISIL in Iraq and Syria and to create the conditions for political, humanitarian and security sector stability? Author | Editor: Astorino-Coutois, A. […]
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