Part I: Characterizing the Iraqi-Syrian Conflict System
Unpacking the Regional Conflict System surrounding Iraq and Syria—Part I: Characterizing the System. Author | Editor: Astorino-Coutois, A. (NSI, Inc). This is Part I of a larger study exploring the dynamics of the central Middle East conflict system. It describes the system and why it is critical to assess U.S. security interests and activities in […]
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Bio-Psycho-Social of Violence and Terrorism
Assessing and Anticipating Threats to US Security Interests: A Bio-Psycho-Social Science Approach for Understanding the Emergence of and Mitigating Violence and Terrorism. Author | Editor: Giordano, J. (Georgetown University Medical Center). This white paper represents the work of intra- and extramural subject matter experts (SMEs) from multiple disciplines, convened to provide views and insights to […]
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Maneuver and Engagement in the Narrative Space
Maneuver and Engagement in the Narrative Space. Author | Editor: Munch, R. (TRADOC G-27 TBOC). The paper leverages and melds the latest thinking of academic and operational subject matter experts in fields of organizational and social dynamics, network analysis, psychology, information operations and narrative development, social media analysis, and doctrine development related to aspects of […]
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ISIL’s Intangible Influences and Resolve
ISIL Influence and Resolve. Author | Editor: Astorino-Coutois, A. & Canna, S. (NSI, Inc). During FY 2014, the SOCCENT Commander requested a short-term effort to understand the psychological, ideological, narrative, emotional, cultural, and inspirational (“intangible”) nature of ISIL. As shown below, the SMA1 team really addressed two related questions: “What makes ISIL attractive?” or how […]
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Subject Matter Expert (SME) Assessment of ISIL
Multi-Method Assessment of ISIL in Support of SOCCENT: Subject Matter Expert Elicitation Summary Report, July – November 2014. Author | Editor: Canna, S. & Rieger, T. (NSI, Inc). From July through November 2014, NSI conducted a Subject Matter Expert (SME) Elicitation study to gather insights from interviews, panel discussions, seminars, and personal communications with over […]
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Multi-Method Assessment of ISIL in Iraq and Syria
Multi-Method Assessment of ISIL. Author | Editor: Cabayan, H. (Joint Staff) & Canna, S. (NSI, Inc). SOCCENT has requested a short-term effort to assess the appeal of ISIL, specifically to answer, “What makes ISIL so magnetic, inspirational, and deeply resonant with a specific, but large, portion of the Islamic population allowing it to draw recruitment […]
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Leader Assessment of Bashar al-Assad (Part I)
A Multi-disciplinary, Multi-method Approach to Leader Assessment at a Distance: The Case of Bashar al-Assad. Author | Editor: Kuznar, L. (NSI, Inc), Suedfeld, P. (University of British Columbia), Spitaletta, J. (Johns Hopkins University/Applied Physics Laboratory) & Morrison, B. (University of British Columbia). This report suggests potential types of actions and messages most likely to influence […]
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Leader Assessment of Bashar al-Assad (Part II)
A Multi-disciplinary, Multi-method Approach to Leader Assessment at a Distance: The Case of Bashar al-Assad (Part II: Analytic Approaches). Author | Editor: Kuznar, L. (NSI, Inc) & Suedfeld, P. et al. (University of British Columbia). This report suggests potential types of actions and messages most likely to influence and deter Bashar al-Assad from using force […]
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Subjective Decision Analysis: Egypt, Iran, Iraq, …
Subjective Decision Analysis Final Report: Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Russia, Saudi Arabia & Syria. Author | Editor: Astorino-Courtois, A., Canna, S., Chapman, A., Hartman, A., & Polansky (Pagano), S. (NSI, Inc). The SMA Strategic Deterrence effort is a methodological study to evaluate the appropriateness and utility of modeling and wargaming to support the analytic requirements of […]
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