Key Factors Affecting Black Swans and Gray Rhinos in the USCENTCOM AOR
Authors: Lawrence Kuznar (NSI, Inc.); and Eric Kuznar (NSI, Inc.) This publication was released as part of the SMA project, “CENTCOM Regional and Population Dynamics in the Central Region.” For more information regarding this project, please click here. Executive Summary NSI, Inc. interviewed seven subject matter experts and conducted additional background research in support of its analyses on Black […]
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Assessment of Strategic Implications of Population Dynamics in the Central Region—Integration Report: Black Swan Scenarios
Author | Editors: Lawrence Kuznar (NSI, Inc.); Sarah Canna (NSI, Inc.); and George Popp (NSI, Inc.) This publication was released as part of the SMA project, “CENTCOM Regional and Population Dynamics in the Central Region.” For more information regarding this project, please click here. Report Preview At the request of United States Central Command (USCENTCOM), SMA initiated a […]
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Assessment of Strategic Implications of Population Dynamics in the Central Region—Integration Report: State-Level Instability in the Gulf and Levant
Authors | Editors: Ali Jafri (NSI, Inc.); Weston Aviles (NSI, Inc.); Sarah Canna (NSI, Inc.); and George Popp (NSI, Inc.) This publication was released as part of the SMA project, “CENTCOM Regional and Population Dynamics in the Central Region.” For more information regarding this project, please click here. Report Preview At the request of United States Central Command […]
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Assessment of Strategic Implications of Population Dynamics in the Central Region—Integration Report: Radicalization
Author | Editor: Sabrina Polansky (Pagano) (NSI, Inc.); Sarah Canna (NSI, Inc.); and George Popp (NSI, Inc.) This publication was released as part of the SMA project, “CENTCOM Regional and Population Dynamics in the Central Region.” For more information regarding this project, please click here. Report Preview At the request of United States Central Command (USCENTCOM), SMA initiated a […]
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Assessment of Strategic Implications of Population Dynamics in the Central Region—Integration Report: Great Power Competition
Author | Editors: Belinda Bragg (NSI, Inc.); Sarah Canna (NSI, Inc.); and George Popp (NSI, Inc.) This publication was released as part of the SMA project, “CENTCOM Regional and Population Dynamics in the Central Region.” For more information regarding this project, please click here. Report Preview At the request of the United States Central Command (USCENTCOM), SMA initiated […]
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Oman Succession Crisis 2020
Author | Editor: Vern Liebl (Center for Advanced Operational Culture Learning [CAOCL]); Yager, M. (NSI, Inc.) This publication was released as part of the SMA project, “CENTCOM Regional and Population Dynamics in the Central Region.” For more information regarding this project, please click here. Invited Perspective Preview Note: This assessment was written before the death of Sultan […]
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Summary of Previous Radicalization Work
Author | Editor: Ali Jafri (NSI, Inc.) This publication was released as part of the SMA project, “CENTCOM Regional and Population Dynamics in the Central Region.” For more information regarding this project, please click here. Download Publication Please contact Sarah Canna (scanna@nsiteam.com) if you are interested in requesting access to this report.
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A Strategic Analysis of Violent Extremist Organizations in the United States Central Command Area of Responsibility
Authors: Michael Logan (University of Nebraska, Omaha); Lauren Zimmerman (University of Nebraska, Omaha); Gina Ligon (University of Nebraska, Omaha) This publication was released as part of the SMA project, “CENTCOM Regional and Population Dynamics in the Central Region.” For more information regarding this project, please click here. Executive Summary In this study, our research team examines the organizational sophistication, leadership, and tactical patterns of […]
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A “Colder War” Future in the USCENTCOM AOR? Realpolitik Trajectory of Major Powers and Regional Players
Authors: Dr. Maorong Jiang (Creighton University); and Dr. David Dorondo (Western Carolina University) This publication was released as part of the SMA project, “CENTCOM Regional and Population Dynamics in the Central Region.” For more information regarding this project, please click here. Report Abstract and Methodology This paper addresses potential security concerns in the Middle East and North Africa […]
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Hunting Gray Rhinos and Black Swans: Statistical and Machine Learning Models of Political Stability and Terrorism
Authors | Editor: Lawrence Kuznar (NSI, Inc.); Jeffrey Day (NSI, Inc.); and Eric Kuznar (NSI, Inc.) This publication was released as part of the SMA project, “CENTCOM Regional and Population Dynamics in the Central Region.” For more information regarding this project, please click here. Executive Summary Strategic surprise, the realization that one’s knowledge and assumptions are wrong and the adversary […]
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