Modeling Risk of Strategic Deterrence Failure
Author(s): Elder, R. (George Mason University) Publication Preview George Mason University (GMU) worked with Strategic Multilayer Assessment (SMA) Subject Matter Experts (SMEs) to model risk of strategic deterrence failure, identify potential indicators and factors the U.S. and its partners can influence, and explain this risk to members of Congress and other organizations in a position […]
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The Challenge of Russia’s Non-Strategic Nuclear Weapons: Western Air Supremacy as One Russian Justification for NSNW
Author(s): Boone, R. (National Strategic Research Institute, University of Nebraska); Rehbein, D. (National Strategic Research Institute, University of Nebraska); Swegle, J. (National Strategic Research Institute, University of Nebraska); Yeaw, C. (National Strategic Research Institute, University of Nebraska) Publication Preview Significant and enduring US/NATO advantages in aircraft and precision-guided munitions drives the Russian need for a […]
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The Escalatory Attraction of Limited Nuclear Employment For Great Power Competitors of the United States
Author(s): Yeaw, C. (National Strategic Research Institute, University of Nebraska) Publication Preview The United States has entered into a dangerously new era in which, for the first time in our nation’s history, we now face two nuclear-armed great power competitors. Over the past three decades, while the United States has been focused on a variety […]
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Challenges to 21st Century Deterrence (Part II)
Speaker(s): Elder, R. (George Mason University); Siebens, J. (Defense Strategy & Planning Program, Stimson Center); Yeaw, C. (National Strategic Research Institute, University of Nebraska) Date: 9 December 2021 Speaker Session Summary SMA hosted a panel discussion with Lt Gen (Ret) Robert Elder, PhD (George Mason University), Mr. James A. Siebens (Defense Strategy & Planning Program, […]
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Chinese Illicit Activities Conducted Through Myanmar
Speaker(s): Tower, J. (Country Director, Burma Program, United States Institute of Peace [USIP]); Rotberg, R. (Founding Director, Program on Intrastate Conflict, Harvard Kennedy School; President Emeritus, World Peace Foundation); Cooper, S. (National Investigations Journalist, Global News); Gaines, J. (Communication and Policy Advisor, Public Affairs) Date: 7 December 2021 Speaker Session Recording Please email Ms. Nicole […]
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Invited Perspective: Anticipating the Effects of Emerging Technologies on Nuclear Deterrence
Author(s): Sisson, M. (Brookings Institution) Invited Perspective Preview The effectiveness of nuclear deterrence depends upon mutual confidence in second-strike capabilities – for nuclear deterrence to work, nuclear-armed competitors must all believe that each can absorb a first strike and still return a nuclear response. Emerging technologies being pursued by US competitors that enhance their ability […]
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The Role of Nuclear-Conventional Intermingling on State Decision-making and the Risk of Inadvertent Escalation
Author(s): Bahney, B. (Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory [LLNL]); Péczeli, A. (Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory [LLNL]) Publication Preview Questions Addressed What are the implications of nuclear and conventional intermingling on crisis stability and the potential risk of miscalculation? Specifically, how might entanglement influence US and competitor decision making during crisis and conflict? Framing the Problem In […]
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Challenges to 21st Century Deterrence (Part I)
Speaker(s): Bahney, B. (Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory [LLNL]); Péczeli, A. (Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory [LLNL]); Sisson, M. (Brookings Institute) Date: 30 November 2021 Speaker Session Summary SMA hosted a panel discussion with Mr. Benjamin W. Bahney (Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory [LLNL]), Dr. Anna Péczeli (Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory [LLNL]), and Dr. Melanie Sisson (Brookings Institution) […]
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Unraveling the Resilience of Jihadist Insurgencies: Lessons from Mosul & the Islamic State and The Long Jihad
Speaker(s): Ingram, H. (Senior Research Fellow, Program on Extremism, George Washington University); Mohammed, O. (Lecturer, Middle East History and Cultural Heritage Diplomacy, Sciences Po University) Date: 17 November 2021 Speaker Session Summary SMA hosted a speaker session with Dr. Haroro Ingram (George Washington University) and Mr. Omar Mohammed (Lecturer, Middle East History and Cultural Heritage […]
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Never Mind, We’ll Do It Ourselves: How a Team of Renegades Broke Rules, Shattered Barriers, and Launched the Drone Warfare Revolution
Speaker(s): Bierbauer, A. (CEO of Blackrock Strategy, LLC); Cooter, M. (USAF, Retired) Date: 9 November 2021 Speaker Session Summary SMA hosted a speaker session with Mr. Alec Bierbauer (Blackrock Strategy, LLC) and Col Mark Cooter (USAF, Retired) as part of its SMA General Speaker Series. The US Department of Defense’s Predator program demonstrated how different organizations […]
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