Modeling Risk of Strategic Deterrence Failure
Authors: Lt. Gen (Ret) Robert Elder (George Mason University) This publication was released as part of the SMA project “Risk of Strategic Deterrence Failure.” For more information regarding this project, please click here. Publication Preview George Mason University (GMU) worked with Strategic Multilayer Assessment (SMA) Subject Matter Experts (SMEs) to model risk of strategic deterrence failure, […]
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The Challenge of Russia’s Non-Strategic Nuclear Weapons: Western Air Supremacy as One Russian Justification for NSNW
Authors: Roy Boone (National Strategic Research Institute, University of Nebraska); David Rehbein (National Strategic Research Institute, University of Nebraska); John Swegle (National Strategic Research Institute, University of Nebraska); Christopher Yeaw (National Strategic Research Institute, University of Nebraska) This publication was released as part of the SMA project “Risk of Strategic Deterrence Failure.” For more information […]
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The Escalatory Attraction of Limited Nuclear Employment For Great Power Competitors of the United States
Authors: Christopher Yeaw (National Strategic Research Institute, University of Nebraska) This publication was released as part of the SMA project “Risk of Strategic Deterrence Failure.” For more information regarding this project, please click here. Publication Preview The United States has entered into a dangerously new era in which, for the first time in our nation’s history, […]
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Challenges to 21st Century Deterrence (Part II)
Speakers: Lt Gen (Ret) Robert Elder, PhD (George Mason University); James Siebens (Defense Strategy & Planning Program, Stimson Center); Dr. Christopher Yeaw (National Strategic Research Institute, University of Nebraska) Date: 9 December 2021 Speaker Session Summary SMA hosted a panel discussion with Lt Gen (Ret) Robert Elder, PhD (George Mason University), Mr. James A. Siebens […]
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Chinese Illicit Activities Conducted Through Myanmar
Speaker(s): Tower, J. (Country Director, Burma Program, United States Institute of Peace [USIP]); Rotberg, R. (Founding Director, Program on Intrastate Conflict, Harvard Kennedy School; President Emeritus, World Peace Foundation); Cooper, S. (National Investigations Journalist, Global News); Gaines, J. (Communication and Policy Advisor, Public Affairs) Date: 7 December 2021 Speaker Session Recording Please email Ms. Nicole […]
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Invited Perspective: Anticipating the Effects of Emerging Technologies on Nuclear Deterrence
Author: Melanie Sisson (Brookings Institution) This publication was released as part of the SMA project “Risk of Strategic Deterrence Failure.” For more information regarding this project, please click here. Invited Perspective Preview The effectiveness of nuclear deterrence depends upon mutual confidence in second-strike capabilities – for nuclear deterrence to work, nuclear-armed competitors must all believe that […]
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The Role of Nuclear-Conventional Intermingling on State Decision-making and the Risk of Inadvertent Escalation
Authors: Benjamin Bahney (Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory [LLNL]) and Dr. Anna Péczeli (Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory [LLNL]) This publication was released as part of the SMA project “Risk of Strategic Deterrence Failure.” For more information regarding this project, please click here. Publication Preview Questions Addressed Framing the Problem In practice, there are three main forms of […]
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Challenges to 21st Century Deterrence (Part I)
Speakers: Benjamin W. Bahney (Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory [LLNL]); Dr. Anna Péczeli (Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory [LLNL]); and Dr. Melanie Sisson (Brookings Institute) Date: 30 November 2021 Speaker Session Summary SMA hosted a panel discussion with Mr. Benjamin W. Bahney (Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory [LLNL]), Dr. Anna Péczeli (Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory [LLNL]), and Dr. […]
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Unraveling the Resilience of Jihadist Insurgencies: Lessons from Mosul & the Islamic State and The Long Jihad
Speaker(s): Ingram, H. (Senior Research Fellow, Program on Extremism, George Washington University); Mohammed, O. (Lecturer, Middle East History and Cultural Heritage Diplomacy, Sciences Po University) Date: 17 November 2021 Speaker Session Summary SMA hosted a speaker session with Dr. Haroro Ingram (George Washington University) and Mr. Omar Mohammed (Lecturer, Middle East History and Cultural Heritage […]
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Never Mind, We’ll Do It Ourselves: How a Team of Renegades Broke Rules, Shattered Barriers, and Launched the Drone Warfare Revolution
Speaker(s): Bierbauer, A. (CEO of Blackrock Strategy, LLC); Cooter, M. (USAF, Retired) Date: 9 November 2021 Speaker Session Summary SMA hosted a speaker session with Mr. Alec Bierbauer (Blackrock Strategy, LLC) and Col Mark Cooter (USAF, Retired) as part of its SMA General Speaker Series. The US Department of Defense’s Predator program demonstrated how different organizations […]
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