Challenges to 21st Century Deterrence (Part I)

Speakers: Benjamin W. Bahney (Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory [LLNL]); Dr. Anna Péczeli (Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory [LLNL]); and Dr. Melanie Sisson (Brookings Institute)

Date: 30 November 2021

Speaker Session Summary

SMA hosted a panel discussion with Mr. Benjamin W. Bahney (Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory [LLNL]), Dr. Anna Péczeli (Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory [LLNL]), and Dr. Melanie Sisson (Brookings Institution) as part of its SMA STRATCOM Risk of Strategic Deterrence Failure Speaker Series..

If states are engaging in nuclear deterrence, then they are in a no-win situation. Successful nuclear deterrence is only achieved when all actors agree that a nuclear conflict is not an option. However, the development of new dual-use technologies and more frequent digital intrusions are degrading states’ ability to deter others. Cyber attacks are making it harder for states to hide their true nuclear arsenals and second-strike capabilities. Dr. Sisson commented that the belief a country has second strike capabilities, or the ability to launch a counterattack after suffering a nuclear assault, is crucial to successful nuclear deterrence. Also, states have been focused on creating and integrating dual-use technologies that have both nuclear and conventional military capabilities into their armed forces.

The integration of dual-use technology into conventional military forces will change how civilian and military leaders participate in brinksmanship. It also increases the potential for nuclear escalation. Mr. Bahney commented that this technology is diverse and includes bombers, missile systems, and cyber capabilities. As the US and Russia continue to intermingle their nuclear and traditional capabilities, China is growing its nuclear arsenal to achieve nuclear parity with the other great powers. Dr. Péczeli commented that the perception of actors plays a significant role in their ability to deter others. Because of this, the US should focus on increasing its resilience to digital, create a more cooperative environment in the future, and avoid situations that could lead to nuclear escalation.

Speaker Session Recording

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Briefing Materials

Biographies:

Benjamin Bahney is a senior fellow at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory’s Center for Global Security Research (CGSR) where he studies strategic competition in the 21st century in the areas of space, cyber, and advanced science and technology. His research interests include how these new areas of competition affect strategic stability, deterrence, and escalation management. Mr. Bahney has written for Foreign Affairs magazine, Foreign Policy, Lawfare, War on the Rocks, and has contributed to the opinion pages of the New York Times, and the Los Angeles Times. He was also a contributor to the volume Cross-Domain Deterrence: Strategy in an Era of Complexity published by Oxford University Press (2019). 

Anna Péczeli is a post-doctoral research fellow at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. She is also an affiliate at the Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC) at Stanford University, and an adjunct fellow at the Centre for Strategic and Defence Studies (CSDS) at the National University of Public Service in Budapest, Hungary. Prior to joining LLNL, she worked at Stanford University: in 2018-2019 she was a visiting postdoctoral research scholar at The Europe Center (TEC), and in 2016-2017 she was a Stanton nuclear security fellow at CISAC. In Hungary, she was a senior research fellow at CSDS, an assistant lecturer at Corvinus University of Budapest, and an adjunct fellow at the Hungarian Institute of International Affairs. During her PhD studies, she held a visiting research fellowship at the Peace Research Institute Frankfurt, and a visiting Fulbright fellowship at the Nuclear Information Project of the Federation of American Scientists (FAS) in Washington, DC. 

Melanie W. Sisson is a fellow in the Brookings Institution Foreign Policy program’s Center for Security, Strategy, and Technology where she researches the use of the armed forces in international politics, U.S. national security strategy, and military applications of emerging technologies. Sisson previously was vice president of analysis at Govini, an early-stage national security AI/ML technology company, and senior fellow and director of the Stimson Center Defense Strategy and Planning program. At Stimson, Sisson partnered with the Stanley Center and U.N. Office of Disarmament Affairs to address the implications for international security of military applications of AI, and published “Military Coercion and US Foreign Policy: The Use of Force Short of War” (Routledge, 2020). A former senior national security project associate with the RAND Corporation, manager of program evaluation for a non-profit mental health organization, and member of the U.S. intelligence community, Sisson earned a doctorate in political science from the University of Colorado at Boulder, and a master’s from the Columbia University School of International Affairs. She is a consultant to the U.S. Department of Defense, lectures regularly with universities nationwide, and is published in national media outlets and academic journals.

This speaker session supported SMA’s Risk of Strategic Deterrence Failure project. For additional speaker sessions and project publications, please visit the Risk of Strategic Deterrence Failure project page.