Challenges to 21st Century Deterrence (Part III)

Speakers: Dr. Allison Astorino-Courtois (NSI) and Dr. Belinda Bragg (NSI)

Date: 7 January 2022

Speaker Session Summary

SMA hosted a panel discussion with Dr. Allison Astorino-Courtois (NSI) and Dr. Belinda Bragg (NSI) as as part of its SMA STRATCOM Risk of Strategic Deterrence Failure Speaker Series. 

As US adversaries reach nuclear parity—or near nuclear parity—with the US, multi-actor deterrence is becoming more prevalent in global influence competition. However, having more than two actors involved in deterrence does not change the nature of deterrence itself: it only changes the structure of deterrence scenarios. Dr. Astorino-Courtois commented that multi-actor deterrence forces actors to acknowledge that deterrence is not dyadic, and that US deterrence policy has not modernized to account for multiple actors taking part. She identified four different deterrence scenarios and related each to US competition with China over Taiwan. These different scenarios can be identified through understanding participating actors’: a) interest relationships, b) their preferred roles in deterrence, and c) understanding actors’ resolve in relation to the preferred outcome. In the future, there will be deterrence occurring with more actors than there is today; however, effective deterrence will likely always include: a) capability, b) credibility, and c) communication.

While deterrence is an important aspect of global competition, it is also important to understand how US adversaries are attempting to shape the future competition environment. Dr. Bragg commented that her report focuses on four actors: a) Russia, b) China, c) Iran, and d) North Korea. She emphasized that most US adversaries’ actions relate back to their regime survival. To support their regime survival, these actors have a vested interest in supporting other autocratic regimes and weakening US and Western ideals in foreign countries. Russia and China have been especially active in exporting their own media and culture to weaken US influence or replace US influence where it is already deteriorating. Furthermore, even though Russia and China have historically been in conflict, their global competition with the US and Western countries has led to their short-term cooperation. Dr. Bragg pointed out that US adversaries’ activities are too varied, and US interests are too interdependent for a single deterrence strategy to be sufficient. Instead, the US should focus on its foreign policy’s ‘say-do-gap,’ and increase its focus on helping its allies to strengthen their own weaknesses and lessen US adversaries’ opportunities to undermine democratic principles. 

Speaker Session Recording

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Briefing Materials

Biographies:

Dr. Allison Astorino-Courtois is Executive Vice President at NSI, Inc. She has also served as co-chair of a National Academy of Sciences study on Strategic Deterrence Military Capabilities in the 21st Century, and as a primary author on a study of the Defense and Protection of US Space Assets. Dr. Astorino-Courtois has served as technical lead on a variety of rapid turn-around, Joint Staff-directed Strategic Multilayer Assessment (SMA) projects in support of US forces and Combatant Commands. These include assessments of key drivers of political, economic and social instability and areas of resilience in South Asia; development of an analytic approach used to identify USINDOPACOM requirements for humanitarian support in a Megacity (case study: Dhaka, Bangladesh); development of a methodology for conducting provincial assessments for the ISAF Joint Command; production of a “rich contextual understanding” (RCU) to supplement intelligence reporting for the ISAF J2 and Commander; projects for USSTRATCOM on deterrence assessment methods; and, work for USSOCOM on operationalizing its “gray zone” concept.

Previously, Dr. Astorino-Courtois was a Senior Analyst at SAIC (2004-2007) where she served as a USSTRATCOM liaison to US and international academic and business communities. Prior to that Dr. Astorino-Courtois was a tenured Associate Professor of International Relations at Texas A&M University in College Station, TX (1994-2003) where her research focused on the cognitive aspects of political decision making and how to “market” peaceful conflict resolution to adversarial actors. She has received a number of academic grants and awards and has published articles in multiple peer-reviewed journals. She has also taught at Creighton University and as a visiting instructor at the US Military Academy at West Point. Dr. Astorino-Courtois earned her Ph.D. in International Relations and MA in and Research Methods from New York University. Her BA is in political science from Boston College. Finally, Dr. Astorino-Courtois also has the distinction of having been awarded both a US Navy Meritorious Service Award and a US Army Commander’s Award.

Dr. Belinda Bragg is a Principal Research Scientist for NSI. She has provided core support for DoD Joint Staff and USSTRATCOM, USEUCOM, USPACOM, USCENTCOM, USAFRICOM Strategic Multi-layer Analysis (SMA) projects for the past ten years. Dr. Bragg has extensive experience reviewing and building social science models and frameworks. Her research has focused on decision making, causes of conflict, interest analysis, and state instability. She is one of the two designers of a stability model, (the StaM) that has been used by ISAF to determine the success of stability efforts in Afghanistan, by the Joint Staff to evaluate state stability in Pakistan, and at the city-level to explore the drivers and buffers of instability in megacities, with a case study of Dhaka. She developed NSI’s Pathways model, which examines future trajectories of fragile states, and has been applied to Pakistan and Afghanistan. Prior to joining NSI, Dr. Bragg was a visiting lecturer in International Relations at Texas A&M University in College Station, where she continues to teach on a regular basis. Dr. Bragg earned her Ph.D. in political science from Texas A&M University, and her BA from the University of Melbourne, Australia.

This speaker session supported SMA’s Risk of Strategic Deterrence Failure project. For additional speaker sessions and project publications, please visit the Risk of Strategic Deterrence Failure project page.