China’s Nuclear Modernization and Its Implications
Speaker(s): Zhao, T. (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace)
Date: 23 February 2022
Speaker Session Summary
SMA hosted a speaker session with Dr. Tong Zhao (Senior Fellow, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace) as part of its SMA INDOPACOM Speaker Series.
China’s rapid nuclear development is being driven by both Chinese President Xi Jinping’s personal ambition and China’s paranoia relating to US nuclear capabilities. Xi’s personal ambition includes a desire to become a historic figure in China’s rise to great power status. He frequently mentions China’s nuclear capability as key to becoming a preeminent global power. However, China’s paranoia that the US would commit a first strike is the strongest driver of its nuclear program’s development. Official Chinese doctrine reflects both Xi’s personal ambitions and China’s paranoia relating to a US first strike. This doctrine depicts China as a peaceful and stabilizing force and the US as inherently greedy, corrupt, and destabilizing villain. Dr. Zhao also mentions that it is uncertain how third-party actors—like North Korea— would react during an escalating conflict between the US and China.
China’s paranoia that the US is willing to commit a first strike is also resulting in an arms race which includes: a) developing new conventional weapons systems, b) creating technologies that have nuclear potential, and c) developing both a mass strike system and defensive warning system. Concerningly, Chinese doctrine reflects that China’s no first strike policy may be changing. Dr. Zhao also commented that despite the US-China geopolitical rivalry, the US should continue to reassure China that it is not trying to undermine Chinese nuclear security. By reassuring China, the US can help lessen its level of paranoia. Furthermore, China-US talks relating to their nuclear capabilities and overall military posture is an important tool for avoiding future nuclear escalation.
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