Discourse Indicators of Gray Zone: Estonia

January 2017 No Comments

Discourse Indicators of Gray Zone Activity: Russian-Estonian Relations Case Study.

Author | Editor: Dr. Lawrence Kuznar, George Popp, & Nicole (Peterson) Omundson (NSI, Inc.)

The increasing use of emotive themes and rhetorical devices (that amplify a message’s emotional effect) provide indicators of gray zone activities in speeches made by Eurasian regional leaders and has the potential to provide leading indicators and reveal key issues and concerns.

Indicators & Warnings (I&W)
  • Putin exhibits a sustained concern over Europe and the threat of Nazism, consistent with earlier studies (Kuznar, 2016b).
  • The overall sentiment between the Putin and Estonian governments demonstrates increasingly negative relations between the two countries.
Predominant Concerns of Regional Actors
  • The Putin government predictably stresses the plight of Russian Minorities in Estonia, and the need for Cooperation in its discourses on Estonia.
  • Ethnic Russian-Estonians emphasizes their ethnic Identity.
  • The Estonian government stresses the need for Cooperation.
Use of Emotional Language
  • The Estonian government used nearly five times the amount of emotional language (emotional themes and rhetorical devices) used by the Putin government.
    • This pattern reflects other studies that have demonstrated that the Putin government generally uses much more restrained language than other leaders (Kuznar, Popp, & Peterson, 2017; Kuznar & Yager, 2016).
    • This restrained language may be an indicator that the Putin government is more vulnerable to traditional deterrence operations (USSTRATCOM, 2006), provided that their values are accurately identified.
Download Publication

Comments

Submit A Comment