Four Scenarios for the Korean Peninsula’s Future

Four Scenarios for the Korean Peninsula’s Future

SMA hosted a speaker session with Prof. Narushige Michishita (National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies [GRIPS]) as a part of its SMA INDOPACOM Speaker Series.

Date: 20 June 2018

Speaker Session Preview

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Prof. Narushige Michishita (National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies [GRIPS]) as a part of its SMA INDOPACOM Speaker Series. During this presentation, Prof. Michishita provided his assessment of the recent Singapore conference. He argued that what was concluded in the joint statement was “not enough;” however, President Trump’s and Kim Jong-un’s intentions have become more important in determining the future of the Korean Peninsula than what is stated in formal documents. So, it is difficult to say what will happen next based only on the summit. Prof. Michishita concluded by discussing four different scenarios for the future of the Korean Peninsula: 1) the “okay” scenario, 2) the “bad” scenario (i.e. a military crisis), 3) the “precarious peace” scenario, and 4) the “Gorbachev” scenario.

This speaker session supported SMA’s Korea Strategic Outcomes project. For additional speaker sessions and project publications, please visit the Korea Strategic Outcomes project page.

Speaker Session Recording

Briefing Materials

Biography

Prof. Narushige Michishita is a global fellow at the Woodrow Wilson Center and a professor at the National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies in Tokyo. Previously, he served as a senior research fellow at the National Institute for Defense Studies, Ministry of Defense and assistant counsellor at the Cabinet Secretariat for Security and Crisis Management of the Government of Japan. A specialist in Japanese security and foreign policy, as well as security issues on the Korean Peninsula, his works include North Korea’s Military-Diplomatic Campaigns, 1966-2008 (Routledge, 2009).

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