Harnessing Futures and Foresighting Techniques – Using Methods, Approaches, and Multidisciplinary Teams to Understand the Strategic Implications of COVID
Speakers: Braun, R. (Lancaster University, UK); Curry, A. (School of International Futures (SOIF)); Tovey, P. (Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra))
Date: 29 September 2020
Speaker Session Summary
SMA hosted a panel discussion as part of its SMA UK MoD Speaker Series, entitled “Harnessing Futures and Foresighting Techniques – Using Methods, Approaches, and Multidisciplinary Teams to Understand the Strategic Implications of COVID,” featuring Prof. Rebecca Braun (Professor of Modern Languages and Creative Futures, Lancaster University, UK), Mr. Andrew Curry (Director of Futures, School of International Futures (SOIF)), and Mr. Philip Tovey (Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra)). The moderator was Ms. Nicole Omundson (NSI, Inc.).
Mr. Curry began the panel with a discussion on black elephants and gray rhinos, as well as how a better future starts with better decisions today. He explained that futures work focuses on probable and possible scenarios based off of past and current trends. The world cannot control the future, according to Mr. Curry, but it can influence and prepare for the future by making thoughtful choices in the present. Images of the future are mirrored by those of the past; therefore, the world should look backward twice as far as it is looking forward, Mr. Curry argued. He also stated that a futurist needs to be a historian in order to effectively understand the possibilities that the future holds. Futures research suggests that there are four major factors that significantly affect generational changes: demographics, economics, values, and technology. Futures work develops predetermined patterns of change, including predictable surprises such as COVID-19. Mr. Curry explained that individuals often do not act when they see predictable surprises coming primarily due to their tendency to maintain the status quo and need to experience a problem through vivid data before they invest in fixing it. So, individuals need to become aware of these tendencies and act against them to avoid predictable surprises in the future.
Prof. Braun continued the conversation with a discussion on imagining different times. She began by stating that futures work is a social and creative process that focuses on how to make the world care more about what may happen in the future. In her work, Prof. Braun recognizes the importance of art and how one can use art to offer an alternative normal with significant disruptive potential—a practice that is dissimilar to scientific modeling, which is generally underpinned by a linear sense of chronology. She used the novel Don Quixote as an example of backcasting during this discussion, arguing that literature can provide new takes on futures techniques. She further stated that literature also offers a method of understanding the second- and third-order effects of a global crisis through its ability to capture individuals’ imagination in a way that scientific modeling does not. Further, powerful beliefs and ideals can motivate agency that defies temporal and spatial norms, Prof. Braun suggested.
Mr. Tovey concluded the briefing portion of the panel by focusing on redefining temporal advantage post-COVID. He argued that COVID was not a failure of foresight, but rather of temporal conceptualization. There are numerous different temporal realities, including physicalist, directional, and decisional. Mr. Tovey detailed the characteristics of each type and how they may rank in terms of future depth. He stressed the importance of temporal advantage, or the advantage gained through a decisional act that surpasses the immediate perceived threat or opportunity impact horizon. In other words, he stated that one can predict potential challenges and act nimbly in the face of them. Mr. Tovey also defined and explained the importance of impact horizon, or the immediate effects of an event that causes a visceral change to a given organism’s existence. Without a sufficient understanding of these ideas, Mr. Tovey hypothesized that we will miss the biggest of threats. He concluded by stating that in order to gain temporal advantage in a post-COVID world, we need to transition from ‘reporting culture’ of the future to a ‘deep embodiment of futuring’ by adopting a modern-physicalist reality.
Speaker Session Recording
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