Key Elements of the 2021 Nuclear Posture Review

Speaker: Dr. Anna Péczeli (Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory)

Date: 21 July 2021

Speaker Session Summary

SMA hosted a speaker session with Dr. Anna Péczeli (Postdoctoral Research Fellow, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory) as part of its SMA STRATCOM Risk of Strategic Deterrence Failure Speaker Series.

The purpose of a Nuclear Posture Review (NPR) is to assess the current nuclear threat environment, outline nuclear deterrence policy and strategy for the next 5-10 years, and align participating countries’ nuclear forces. Dr. Péczeli reviewed the similarities and differences of past US Nuclear Posture Reviews. Several similarities of past NPRs include: a) deciding against a no first use policy, b) deciding against a sole purpose posture, c) maintaining a form of negative security assurance, and d) excepting a level of calculated ambiguity for nuclear retaliation. This level of ambiguity relating to nuclear retaliation allows for the use of nuclear weapons in extreme circumstance.

Differences between past Nuclear Posture Reviews were influenced by the context of current events who the individuals were in each administration. For example, the earlier nuclear review processes under President Bush and President Clinton were conducted behind the scenes and DoD-led, while President Obama and President Trump named nuclear terrorism as a direct threat. Dr. Péczeli concluded her presentation by surmising what the new administration’s NPR might include, basing her thoughts on President Biden’s past statements on nuclear policy. She expects that the new administration will pursue an extension of the START treaty, reenter the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) if Iran agrees to the terms, and commit to reducing the overall role of nuclear weapons.

Speaker Session Recording

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Briefing Materials

Biography:

Anna Péczeli is also an affiliate at the Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC) at Stanford University, and an adjunct fellow at the Centre for Strategic and Defence Studies (CSDS) at the National University of Public Service in Budapest, Hungary. Prior to joining LLNL, she worked at Stanford University: in 2018-2019 she was a visiting postdoctoral research scholar at The Europe Center (TEC), and in 2016-2017 she was a Stanton nuclear security fellow at CISAC. In Hungary, she was a senior research fellow at CSDS, an assistant lecturer at Corvinus University of Budapest, and an adjunct fellow at the Hungarian Institute of International Affairs. During her PhD studies, she held a visiting research fellowship at the Peace Research Institute Frankfurt, and a visiting Fulbright fellowship at the Nuclear Information Project of the Federation of American Scientists (FAS) in Washington, DC. 

This speaker session supported SMA’s Risk of Strategic Deterrence Failure project. For additional speaker sessions and project publications, please visit the Risk of Strategic Deterrence Failure project page.